I think this is good spot to opose Garin. He is now on a serious win streak and matches played over last couple of weeks. Match against Fokina can be maybe indicator of his fatigue. He was very bad in serve department where he gave away 13 break points and lost serve 7 times total. I can not judge specificly on that match alone, because Fokina is more than unrelieble player, but it seems like Garin is slowly falling in form.
It is always difficult to connect more tournaments in a row, especialy with players who are not on the very top.. I am not saying Garin is not a good player, but his body is maybe not in best shape for this match. He oscilated so much against Fokina, and I think Wild can make an upset here. He is curently overperforming, had a great run on clay at the end of 2019 on challengers, and he already beat 2 grinders like Bagnis and Londero. Confidence must be on high level, and Garin will have home support, but not weather advantage two.This can be another rollercoaster of a match with many breaks, and in situation like that this is closer that odds suggest.
Kristian for a fact is more experienced player and better overall so far in career, but many matches in last 2 weeks and 3 setter against Fokina can have impact here. I counted on Tsitsipas today to be fatigued, but he played whole match without mistake, flawless and congrats to him, deserved win. If Kiki repeats the same, there is nothing we can do, but on facts and other reasons, this bet and especially odds are worth of shot.
Garin vs Wild betting tips
Wild (Stake: 6)Odds: 2.95 at Pinnacle
Result: 0-1 (retired) WON (+11.7 units)