Humbert vs Norrie (By: Iniestaone)
First round match from Lyon between Humbert (#62) and Norrie (#45)
I covered Humbert's last match where i got his straight set loss to Carballes Baena in Madrid correctly, he lost 6-7 1-6 making it his fourth loss on clay this season while his only win so far has been against Diep in three sets as a 1.04 favorite. Its quite simple, he is a bad clay courter: last year he was 8/3 on clay in total, the season before that he was 11/11 but those matches were literally all Futures except three. And he did not win any of the matches outside the Futures circuit.
Humbert could make use of the fast courts in Madrid to see his offensive style pay out in the first set but that won't happen here against Norrie, the courts are too slow for Humbert to finish off the points quick enough for him to have a chance here. There's also going to be raining in Lyon tonight which will slow down the pace of the courts by tomorrow noon even more and create the worst possible conditions for Humbert.
Meanwhile, Norrie is not a typically good clay courter either but the things that in my opinion speak for him here are his big matches in Rome where the courts are equally slow and he took wins against Gojowczyk, Jarry and Millman before losing to Coric. Lyon is also his most successful clay court tournament ever as he reached the semis here last year and he defeated another big server, Isner, in the quarters 7-6 6-4.
Norrie has better movement and hands than Humbert and he will control the rallies successfully, I fully trust him to win this by three games or more. The reason I am choosing this instead of a set bet is that its possible that Humbert repeats his one successful set in Madrid and wins by a tiebreak but then over the course of three sets he should not be able to rely on his serve on this slow court.
€25 Risk-Free Bet
Humbert vs Norrie predictions
|Norrie -2.5||Bet365||1.72||8||2-0 LOST (-8 units)|
Humbert vs Norrie betting preview represents the personal opinion of the author (Iniestaone).