Wawrinka vs Nadal (By: Iniestaone)

Quarterfinal match from ATP Madrid between Wawrinka (#34) and Nadal (#2)

I will keep going for Wawrinka in Madrid, he has now won two matches for me and three for himself and he has gone unbroken against Herbert, Pella and Nishikori. Its a very good indication of his form starting to reach top level. He has been excellent on these fast clay courts, both his forehand and backhand are being hit with a lot of confidence

Meanwhile, as I've said, Nadal is not at his highest level and I don't think he will demolish Stan here. He took out Auger Aliassime 6-3 6-3 but he choked when serving at 5-2 in the second and needed 6 match points on A-A's serve in the next game to win. He beat Tiafoe 6-3 6-4. I am sure Wawrinka will get closer than both of them.

The head to head reads 17-3 for Nadal, but this should be disregarded. Instead, look at the stats after Stan's breakthrough in 2014. Then the head to head reads 6-3 Nadal. Under these conditions, when Nadal is not at his best and Wawrinka seems to be getting to his best, I think its worth backing Wawrinka not to lose by more than 4.5 games. He is a smaller underdog than he usually is against Nadal here at just under 4 times the money, and I think he can win this as he has the firepower to hit past Nadal but the reason I won't back him to win is that Nadal simply isn't looking bad enough to lose this. The 4.5 line is very high though when everything i've written here is taken into consideration.

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Wawrinka vs Nadal predictions

Tip Bookmaker Odds * Stake Result
Wawrinka +4.5 Pinnacle 1.81 8 0-2 LOST (-8 units)
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.
Wawrinka vs Nadal betting preview represents the personal opinion of the author (Iniestaone).
+9 -14
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