Aliassime vs Nadal (By: Iniestaone)
Second round match from ATP Madrid between Auger Aliassime (#30) and Nadal (#2)
These odds would be quiet normal if both A-A and Nadal were in good shape but as evident from Monte Carlo and Barcelona, that is not the case with Nadal. His Barcelona run shows that his injuries are plaguing him too much for him to play on absolute top level, he is not moving as well as we are used to seeing him move on clay and his groundstrokes aren't as impactful. He is coming to Madrid from a semifinal loss in Barcelona against Thiem (4-6 4-6)
Meanwhile, Auger Aliassime has continued to play well after the American hardcourt circuit, he took losses to Zverev and Nishikori in Monte Carlo and Barcelona but won against Shapovalov (6-2 7-6) in his first round in Madrid. He reached a good fs percentage of 69 and he had a very good day on his second serve as he won 65% of those points.
I think we will see a match here where A-A frustrates Nadal a lot with his tenacious playing style, he will keep up in the rallies and truly contest the games. I won't back him to win as I feel even a half good Nadal would beat A-A on a Spanish clay court but the +5.5 games handicap line for almost twice the money is a very good bet here, a scoreline of 6-4 6-4 for Nadal seems very probable here to me. Nadal was on fire in his first two matches in Monte Carlo as he had a month to prepare for it but since then, he has played six matches and only covered the 5.5 games line against Ferrer (6-3 6-3)
Aliassime vs Nadal predictions
|Auger Aliassime +5.5||Pinnacle||1.95||8||0-2 LOST (-8 units)|
Aliassime vs Nadal betting preview represents the personal opinion of the author (Iniestaone).