Opelka vs Carreno-Busta (By: Iniestaone)

First round match from ATP Madrid between Opelka (#59) and Carreno Busta (#38)

I'm going for Opelka once again in Madrid, he got the job a bit underwhelming against Zverev in the first qualification round as he won in two tiebreaks, I expected him to get it done a bit safer than that but the final qualification match is what makes me think he will have a good run here as he defeated Londero in three sets which means he has now faced two vastly different players in the quals and defeated them both which is a good showing, especially considering that he is yet to reach his highest level of serving in this tournament: 66% first serve against Zverev and 59% against Londero, he won the vast majority of those fs points (82% and 81%) but he can still turn in another gear and hit a few percentiles higher.

Carreno-Busta is slowly returning to the circuit, he withdrew from Cordoba in February due to a shoulder injury and he missed a lot of tennis, he came back in Barcelona where he was knocked out by Paire and Chard took him out in Estoril. He hasn't looked good in those matches,to me it seems like his shoulder isn't fully fit as his serves are quite bad and if he doesn't have a very good day on serve, which to me seems unlikely, then he will lose this match as Opelka's serving has been really on point despite not being as good as it can be, he gave Zverev two breakpoints which he saved and he saved three out of four against Londero.

These Madrid courts are really fast and Opelka is making the most of them. I trust him to take his third straight win here.

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Opelka vs Carreno-Busta predictions

Tip Bookmaker Odds * Stake Result
Opelka Pinnacle 2.14 8 2-0 WON (+9.12 units)
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.
Opelka vs Carreno-Busta betting preview represents the personal opinion of the author (Iniestaone).
+18 -5
 
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