Nadal vs Mayer (By: Iniestaone)
Second round match from ATP Barcelona between Nadal (#2) and Mayer (#63)
To me it seems like the bookies are ignoring the magnitude of Nadal's injury concerns. I watched him give a very sad press conference after Monte Carlo where he lost in the semis against Fognini and he played truly dreadful. This is not the Nadal we are used to seeing, he has been struggling with injuries to his abdomen, ankle, thigh, knee and hands. Its not only affecting him physically now but also mentally as he spoke about his title drought, he hasn't won a title since Toronto last year.
He had a good month long rest between Indian Wells (where he gave Federer a walkover win in the semis) and Monte Carlo and that is most likely the reason he started so well in Monte Carlo as he defeated Bautista Agut and Dimitrov so easily but then struggled so much to get past Pella before eventually losing against Fognini in what was the worst performance from him in years, at least from what i've seen. He also said that the two games he won in the second set were lucky and he was right as a bagel would've represented the match picture better.
What about Mayer? Very unstable player who has a high top gear which he does not reach often, but when he does then he can be a hard opponent to overcome. Clay is also his main surface.
I think that there is reason to assume that Nadal won't be fully fit just a few days after Monte Carlo and I can't think of anything more motivating for Mayer to take his first ever victory against Nadal when Rafa is this low, both mentally and physically. I know a lot of people will disagree with this bet but I think that its alright for low stakes on a bookie that allows it to be valid after a set is played. Nothing says that we will see a different Nadal here from the one we saw at Monte Carlo and Mayer can take advantage of that.
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Nadal vs Mayer predictions
|Mayer||Pinnacle||12.05||3||2-1 LOST (-3 units)|
Nadal vs Mayer betting preview represents the personal opinion of the author (Iniestaone).