Medvedev D. vs Lajovic (By: Iniestaone)

Semifinal match from ATP Monte Carlo between Medvedev (#14) and Lajovic (#48)

I will continue going for Lajovic in Monte Carlo and I think he will reach the finals after tomorrow. He is facing Medvedev who defeated Djokovic today.

To dissect both quarterfinals: Medvedev was facing a really bad Djokovic, Nole has been bad since Australian Open, he was struggling against Kohlschreiber and then had an easy match against a Fritz who is a bad claycourter, him losing to Medvedev doesn't really surprise me on the surface but losing to that Medvedev who was serving at 49% is very strange to me. Obviously Djokovic is not playing his A-game.

Earlier in the day, Lajovic defeated Sonego in two sets. I watched the match and as ever so often with Lajovic it seems like his matches reach a period where every shot he makes feels like it might end up 10 meters behind the baseline or end up being a magnificent shot. He was having that kind of period during several games in the second set and Sonego even had a set point but Lajovic kept it together and actually threw some risky shots to win important points. His best game came back at 5-5 on Sonego's serve and he won the remaining two games in the set pretty easily. The wind was an obvious factor in that match but its not like Sonego was favored by it, it affected both of them.

The reason I am backing Lajovic again is because he is a much better clay courter than Medvedev and the difference in quality between them is not that big here. I am still not convinced by Medvedev's clay abilities despite his fine run in Monte Carlo. I went against him in his match versus Tsitsipas which went to third set where Tsitsipas completely fell apart at 4-5 and went 0-40 very quickly.

I think its very possible that Lajovic loses his first set here if he ends up having one of his unstable stints in a critical moment but overall I think he will win this match. Despite the windy conditions he managed to reach a first serve percentage of 63% throughout the match and won the vast majority of those points, he showed great composure against a player who was completely backed by the crowd and he should have a much better chance of winning this than what the odds suggest.

I however completely understand if people disagree with me so I will say that a bet on Lajovic +1,5 sets @ around 1.80 is also a very good play here.

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Medvedev D. vs Lajovic predictions

Tip Bookmaker Odds * Stake Result
Lajovic Pinnacle 2.96 8 0-2 WON (+15.68 units)
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.
Medvedev D. vs Lajovic betting preview represents the personal opinion of the author (Iniestaone).
+11 -24
 
Comments (2)
Dotash
Your dislike for this player will make you to continue to lose against him, Medvedev will surely win, he is the one to beat in this tournament.
04/20/2019 - 02:28
iniestaone
A complete demolition from Lajovic, what a match!!
04/20/2019 - 16:00
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