Mager vs Krajinovic (By: Iniestaone)
Quarterfinal from Sophia Antipolis between Mager (#179) and Krajinovic (#109)
Odds have been dropping on most bookies on Mager to win all day, Bet365 offers the second highest odds of 4.33 while it's down to the 3.40's on other places
I think that there is huge value in betting on Mager here, if not an outright win then a handicap bet because he is playing career-high tennis right now, he is 17/7 this season and none of those matches have been on Futures. He is well adapted to European clay at this point after four matches in Marbella and two in Sophia Antipolis. I liked what I saw from him in Marbella and his most recent match was yesterday's win against Herbert in two long sets
Krajinovic's match against Hanfmann was cancelled yesterday, my bet there was for Krajinovic to win the match fast as he was facing a player who has barely played tennis for six months and I think it was a realistic outcome but its a completely different thing now that he is facing a true clay courter in Mager and I can't see Krajinovic having an easy match here, I think the odds for a Mager victory should be around 2.75 which means that when offered over four times the money there is great value.
There is no doubt really that Krajinovic is the better player in general but the transition from hardcourt to clay isn't smooth and I think that for Krajinovic to be a fair 1.15-1.20 favorite against a Mager who is playing better than ever and who is also well adapted to the surface, he would have had to play a lot more matches on the surface.
Mager vs Krajinovic predictions
|Mager||Bet365||4.33||6||0-2 LOST (-6 units)|
Mager vs Krajinovic betting preview represents the personal opinion of the author (Iniestaone).