Lopez vs Koepfer (By: Iniestaone)
Third round match from the Monterrey challenger between Lopez (#91) and Koepfer (#184)
This is one of those matches where Bet365's odds have been at a standstill and have not followed the movement at all which happens from time to time, they give us 1.72 for this match to go over 21.5 games while most bookies have moved this line to 23.5 and put odds of around 1.80 for that. As I'm writing this around five hours before the match starts, Pinnacle has removed the 21.5 game option and give 1.66 for over 22.5
I don't think Koepfer has the mental strength to cause an upset here as he often chokes in the finishing moments against better players but this season he's been very solid for large parts of his matches against the likes of Opelka, Evans and Robredo in February all of whom he lost in three sets. 8 of his 12 matches this season have crossed the 21.5 line and most recently he took a very hard fought win against Barrios in two tiebreaks.
Lopez was not looking very good against Gomez-Herrera as a huge favorite as he won 7-6 6-4, perhaps he needed that one match to get started in Monterrey but a first serve of 47% is very bad regardless.
I think the match between Lopez and Koepfer will be won by Lopez in two long sets, the 21.5 line is perfect her as it covers the very real possibility of a tiebreak win in the first set for Lopez and a single break set win in the second by 6-3/6-4. He is the better player and should win but I don't want to count Koepfer out as I have seen him play very good tennis in periods in his matches this season and I don't think there's anything that says he won't repeat that against Lopez who for sure won't be as motivated as Koepfer having made the transition from Miami to a challenger in Monterrey
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Lopez vs Koepfer predictions
|Over 21.5||Bet365||1.72||9||2-0 LOST (-9 units)|
Lopez vs Koepfer betting preview represents the personal opinion of the author (Iniestaone).