Karlovic vs Albot (By: Iniestaone)

1/16 finals in ATP New York between Karlovic (#81) and Albot (#79)

Karlovic is the favorite to win this, but not by a very big margin and I think Albot is being a bit overrated for this encounter due to his fine performance in Montpellier. He defeated Kohlschreiber, Gulbis and Baghdatis before losing to Tsonga while Karlovic lost to Granollers-Pujol in the first round in three tiebreaks.

This means that Karlovic, who exited Montpellier on February 4th, has had plenty of time to prepare for New York while Albot left Montpellier three days ago and its a very long flight from France to the US.

The courts in New York are very fast and this type of surface is the only one where I'd trust Karlovic to take a straight set win, Albot has no reach to deal with big servers and combine that with the court speed and you have a straight set victory for the player who only bases his game on his serve. Another thing that might make the bookies overrate Albot here is that he reached the quarter finals last year and he defeated a big server then, he took a three set win against Isner but that time he had seven full days to prepare for New York as he lost in the first round in Sofia and it was also Isner's worst period of the year as he was taking losses left and right up until late March. Meanwhile, Karlovic is looking very good at the moment and he too reached the quarter finals last year in New York after defeating Donaldson and Harrison in straight sets before losing to another big server in two tiebreaks - Querrey.

For those of you who want a bet at around 1.65-1.70, you can go for Karlovic outright here but I am trusting him to win in two sets. I can't see a tired Albot taking a set from a Karlovic playing on a surface that is basically made for his serve.

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Karlovic vs Albot predictions

Tip Bookmaker Odds * Stake Result
Karlovic 2-0 Pinnacle 2.75 8 1-2 LOST (-8 units)
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.
Karlovic vs Albot betting preview represents the personal opinion of the author (Iniestaone).
+6 -10
 
Comments (7)
CEdanut
I think it's no chance that Albot lose to 0.Look at his recent results against players stronger than Ivo(he beat kohlschreiber and baghdatis in montpellier).Karlovic who has only 2 weapons(Serve and volley)i think can lose a set easily.
02/12/2019 - 13:51
iniestaone
Under different circumstances off the court and on a slower surface I would agree with you, but all things considered no, i dont think Albot will take a set here
02/12/2019 - 14:01
CEdanut
i watched the match between karlovic and granollers and karlovic isn't that convincing in this moment,we will see m8, good luck!
02/12/2019 - 15:11
Khum
The surface is a argument for betting the over 10.5 / 12.5 in the set or the over in the match.
Stats and experience show that Karlovis is not a tremendous tie-break player, as his winning rates are staying around 50%, below or over, depending on the year. Albot is there too, around 50%.
The fast surface is exactly the reason for Albot won't need extra physical resources. With 3 days of rest and a old guy on the other side of the net, he should be one with more gas in the tank when the match starts. And on the fast surface he won't spend much energy in rallies.

Gamewise I think Albot is more than capable to win at least a tie-break.

From a betting perspective, I think the value is in the over 10.5 games in the 1st set @ 1.80 and in the over 12.5 games @ 2.00.

Best of luck!
02/12/2019 - 15:12
iniestaone
thanks for your input Khum and good luck if you decide to go for the over 10.5/12.5 bet
02/12/2019 - 15:36
Khum
Thank you as well 😉
02/12/2019 - 18:43
David King
I have Karlovic to win, Guido Pella +22.5, McDonalds to win, Bedene and +22.5 and Tottenham 1X
02/13/2019 - 19:13
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