Arnaboldi vs Gerasimov (By: Iniestaone)

First qualification round for ATP Sofia between Arnaboldi (#175) and Gerasimov (#161)

I was going to make Evans my tip of the day for Sunday but the odds were released and they were just too low for there to be any value so I looked around and saw that Arnaboldi is a huge underdog versus Gerasimov in the first qualification round for Sofia and i’ve decided to go for Arnaboldi here

I’ve seen them both play two times this year and I am very surprised at these odds. Gerasimov has played five matches in which he has been the favorite every time: he took a 2-1 win vs Gimeno Traver in his first match of the season and then lost four matches in three sets to Myneni, Ilkel, Arnaboldi and Bourgue. The highest odds on him were in the match vs Bourgue where he was priced at 1.53 after the odds were sliced during the day. His only win against Gimeno Traver is in no way a strong effort as the Spaniard went on to lose three of three matches in straight sets after that and he was really horrible in all of them because he is an awful player outside of clay courts so him taking a set from Gerasimov on a fast court says a lot

Arnaboldi is having a much better season, his four losses have been quite understandable and his two wins were major upsets vs Gerasimov and Lestienne in Rennes where he went on to lose to Maden as a 3.42 underdog with the tight score of 4-6 6-7. I think he has a MUCH bigger chance of winning than what the odds suggest at the moment and I expect the odds to drop quite a bit here. He is an Italian clay courter but he still has 174 matches on indoor hardcourts and he caused several upsets last year as well on this type of surface. I think he’s been serving very well so far this season and the fact that he beat Gerasimov shorter than two weeks ago on a similar surface as the one in Sofia will be a big motivational boost for him. He knows he can win this match and so do I.

In their match in Rennes, Arnaboldi tore him apart in the third set 6-1 after they took a 6-3 win each in the first sets.

The odds were released on Pinnacle ten minutes ago and Arnaboldi was priced at 3.76, it has now dropped to 3.65 and other bookies already have him at 3.10. If you have the chance, you can opt out for the safer option of Arnaboldi taking a set but I truly believe he has every chance of winning this.

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Arnaboldi vs Gerasimov predictions

Tip Bookmaker Odds * Stake Result
Arnaboldi Pinnacle 3.65 8 0-2 LOST (-8 units)
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.
Arnaboldi vs Gerasimov betting preview represents the personal opinion of the author (Iniestaone).
+8 -2
Comments (4)
David King
Dont forget Gerasimov is like Karlovic with aces, Igor play well at this side of Europe. Geresimov is not that bad but he need to learn how to finish the match.
I will try to play this match L I V E!
02/03/2019 - 15:24
I think you're wrong on both points actually, he is not like Karlovic with aces (nowhere near actually if you look at the stats) and he usually plays his best tennis east of Russia. He had one good run at Moscow last year but looking back a few years he hasn't produced good results in East Europe at all
02/03/2019 - 15:37
David King
He made 16 aces. What more do you want. Yes, stat is allways something in which we need to pay attention, I feel stat as my enemy because it is distract me to see whole picture of match but in my opinion stat is around 40% and that is not good for win. You may say whatever you want but I lost so many times because of stat.
Dont worry Iniestaone because I believe this will be your month on Betshoot.
Keep it up.

02/03/2019 - 17:51
Well yeah but 16 aces in two sets isn't that common for him, he's been averaging 10-11 aces in 3-set matches, i don't even know how 16 aces in two sets puts him on Karlovic's level... thanks though, I think I will bounce back tomorrow
02/03/2019 - 18:00
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