Pavlyuchenkova vs Collins (By: Stanioooo)
Quarterfinal match in Melbourne between Danielle Collins and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.
Nobody expected these two players to progress to that stage of the tournament, but they did it. In the 4th round they eliminated the seeded Sloane Stephens and Angelique Kerber and the winner of this match will have the chance to play for the first time in her career in Grand Slam semifinal.
What a row for both of them till now! Pavlyuchenkova twice won Australian Open in her junior career, her potential was extremely good, but she never transformed it into big achievements-no big trophies, no participation even in top 10. After a slowly start of the season with some losses against Kudermetova and Lapko, she finally went into a winning row and eliminated Puig, Bertens, Sasnovich and Stephens. It has to be said that she is a true fighter, her movement on the court is good, although she looks little bit overweighted. Nastya had a little luck against Bertens as the Holland player's form just dropped in the second and third set and that gave wings to the Russian to turn the match which was dictated by Bertens in the 1st set for sure. The unforced errors were just flying from Bertens' racquet. In the last round Stephens started very solid against Pavlyuchenkova and took the lead of 4:1 and 40:0, but somehow missed the momentum and the first set went into a tiebreak won by Sloane. The American also started the second set with a break, but something drastically changed and that gave another huge boost for the Russian to equal the result in sets and then to turn the match. The third set was a festival of breaks and break points. So, what's obvious for Nastya- if you put her under pressure and dictate the points and the situation on the court, she has no answer. The way to beat her when she is in form, is to play aggressive and get Nastya out of her nerves. Then the unforced errors will come one by one, but if you let her dictating the rallies when she is in form, you will be over. She has the power and accuracy to make winners from the bottom of the court and also is a good net player.
On the other side is Collins who really impressed during the tournament in Melbourne. Goerges, Vickery, Garcia and Kerber- these are her victims round by round. In the 1st round Goerges was serving for the match, but Collins somehow survived and won the 2nd in tiebreak and then the whole match. That was the moment when something special just opened like in her mind and gave her the confidence she can continue in the tournament for more than one or two rounds. What happened next? Absolutely astonishing performances against Caroline Garcia and Angie Kerber- the number of winners was just increasing during the matches, her play from the baseline is superb. Her movement is so flowless, the backhand is her main weapon which lead to a lot of groundstrokes. 6:0 6:2 against Kerber- you can't see such an outcome against Angie very often. She couldn't find any rhythm during the match against Collins, because the American just dictated the whole situation on the court. I expect this one to happen also against Pavlyuchenkova. Her staff is doing amazing job before the matches, the game plans work for sure. She reminds me somehow like the nowdays version of Jennifer Capriati.
I like when the odds are high enough for both players just to pick a winner without taking more risk looking for sets/games handicaps. Both of them will be focused to reach their first SF in Grand Slam and it looks like to be a close match, why not in three sets, but will go with Danielle Collins to progress to the semis. I really can't go against her when she is in such a hot form. Collins just didn't give her opponents the chance to dictate the situation on the court, especially in her last two matches and if it happens again, Nastya will have very tough time on the court.
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Pavlyuchenkova vs Collins prediction
|Collins||Pinnacle||2.08||9||1-2 WON (+9.72 units)|