Sandgren vs Norrie
That's the final match in Auckland between Tennys Sandgren and Cameron Norrie.
Maybe you started to fed up with fact Sandgren is included in all my recent picks, but that's part of my betting way- when I start following someone during the tournament, I play him till the end. It depends on the opponent to make the correct tip, sometimes it's better to miss a match where you are not so sure about what is the right pick. Yesterday I didn't play a straight win for Sandgren against Kohlschreiber, because that was a match where he was real outsider in bookies'eyes(over 3.00 when I played the match) and the odds just for a set were absolutely enough for me+ the games handicap which led to a double win. In this final both players are with almost equal odds, Norrie is the slight favorite and that something I really love.
I will try to analyze only their SF matches- you can easily see their previous wins till that stage of the tournament. First will start with Sandgren. Once again he was on fire on serve- 9 aces against 0 double faults, over 90% 1st serve win points and 3/3 saved break chances on serve which actually happened in his first serve game, when he was 0:40 down, but succeeded to turn it. He made a break in the last moment for 6:4 to take the 1st set. In the 2nd it was like one-way traffic- 6:2 for Sandgren with 2 breaks made. During the 2ns set Tennys didn't drop a SINGLE point on serve- all four of them were won to nill. That's outstandingly good performance or serve and also on return. He is really focused from the start of the tournament and there was only one little downfall in his performance against Marterer in 1st round where they broke themselves a couple of times in a short period of time. Sandgren is still without a lost set in Auckland and is ready for the final battle.
On the other side is Norrie, who a little bit surprired during Hopman cup where he took two wins against Tsitsipas and Tiafoe. Infact both of them are not in their best form for sure in the start of the season and that's obvious. Tiafoe is still far away from the very best in the tour and has a lot of work infront of himself to become a great player, while Tsitsipas showed that he can play even equal with the very best in tennis during the last season, but the start of 2019 is not solid for him- 2 wins against Tiafoe and Andreozzi+ 3 losses against Norrie, Federer and Seppi.
When Norrie faced Federer he really saw how far is from the very best in that moment of his career- 6:1 6:1 for the Swiss. Then you play aggressively with a low number of unforced errors against Cameron, he is practically lost in the dark. That's what happened- yeah, it happened in Hopman cup, which doesn't give points for the ranking, but I am sure Norrie was trying to play his best, he doesn't have a chance to play regularly against maybe the best in the history of tennis.
Here in Auckland in the SFs he beat Struff in three sets 7:5 4:6 6:3 and showed a great spirit to overcome the German, but I saw some big weaknesses in his performance especially in the 2nd and the 3rd set. A lot of Norrie's serve games went to 30:30 or 40:40 and most of the times he found the way to win them(errors form Struff in deciding moments or winners from his racquet). He was broken a few times, I think 2 times, but the break chances for Struff were much more. The German was really not impressive on serve and that also helped the British player to win the match. What I saw as biggest weakness in Norrie's performance is his 2nd serve- it's vulnerable to be returned with more aggression and that leads to one thing- problems in his serve games. He is left-handed and we will see how much time Sandgren will need to adjust to his style and shots. The audience is expected to support Norrie maybe a little bit more, because there was a period in his career when he represented New Zealand before moving to England.
Then have 6 matches and Norrie leads 4:2(one of them was not finished because of retirement), but all of them were on futures or challengers where the atmosphere is totally different.This trophy will be significant for both of them, first in their careers from this level and they will be fighting very hard to claim it. I like the odds which I saw for both players' win and I will pick Tennys Sandgren because he was better overall during the tournament, looks very solid from the baseline and on serve and has the aggression in his performance to punish weaker 2nd serves by Norrie. It will not be an easy match for any of them, that's for sure, but I believe much more in Sandgren during this tournament that in anyone else.
From the beginning till the end with the American!
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Sandgren vs Norrie prediction
|Sandgren||Bet365||2.10||9||2-0 WON (+9.9 units)|