Mayer vs Berettini
Second round match from Auckland between Leo Mayer (#54) and Berrettini (#52)
Leo Mayer surprised a lot of people by defeating Johnson, in straight sets, in his first round in Auckland and this despite Johnson losing 6 matches in a row before that one. Unlike in Mayer's first match this season, 0-2 vs Kecmanovic, he managed to somewhat channel his serve. He was only serving at 53% but he won 75% of the points on his first serve. There were 3 breaks in that first set vs Johnson which Mayer ended up winning 7-5.
Berrettini won his first match of the season against McDonald, the latter was rather poor in that match and didn't challenge Berrettini nearly as much as I thought he would in baseline rallies. Berrettini had a great day on serve, winning 80% of his first serve points and reaching 14 aces.
Both Berrettini and Mayer are better servers than returners and I expect them to hold their serves for a long time in the first set. A big portion of this bet hinges on Mayer being able to make the most of his serve, Berrettini won't challenge him on return like a good return player would so if he does get broken it'll be because he is failing to hit his first serves and had this been a first round match then I would not make this bet but Mayer is a very emotional player and that win against Johnson might just inspire him to raise his level in this second round. He usually grows into tournaments when he gets past the first round.
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Mayer vs Berettini prediction
|1st set over 10.5||Bet365||2.75||8||5-7 WON (+14 units)|