De Minaur vs Lajovic

First round match in Sydney between De Minaur and Lajovic.

De Minaur is naturally a big favorite here at 1.30 and I think he will win this in two sets. I watched his match vs Tsonga where he as many times before let his emotions get to him and after losing the first set 4-6 he lost the second after a tiebreak in which he was quite miserable. He was a favorite there too, at around 1.60, but thats probably mainly because Tsonga's fitness was/is questioned. A 'normal' Tsonga would be favored over De Minaur.

Lajovic lost to Cecchinato in Doha after defeating Berankis and Mannarino, Cecchinato won the first set 7-6 and Lajovic collapsed mentally in the second. Its a tendency i've noticed several times before, he is usually a strong starter but has a harder time in the match if he doesn't put up a good fight in the first set. He has improved a lot on hardcourts despite being a clay courter, and his stats on the surface in 2018 and 2017 confirm this as he was 15/9 last year and 16/11 in 2017.

At this point I would say Lajovic is a better server, neither of them is a serve focused player though so we can see potential breaks in the first set from both of them. I think it'll cross the 10.5 line though from what i've seen from them so far this year. Lajovic should however not have a chance to hold this steady in the second set and he will most likely lose in two. I see a complete replay from all of his matches in Doha where he played his by far best tennis in the first sets and then saw his performance deteriorate in the second sets.

Unbeatable Odds

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De Minaur vs Lajovic prediction

Tip Bookmaker Odds * Stake Result
1st set over 10.5 Bet365 3.40 8 6-4 LOST (-8 units)
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.
+2 0
Comments (2)
Stan
That's what is called very, very risky pick :D

When I see De Minaur tiebreak is almost all of the time out of my mind. When we add Lajovic, who has good serve, but is too inconsistent player(0:6 against Berankis last week), the situation goes extremely tight.

Hope you good luck and a green one with this craziness! It looks like you love to pick over 10.5 games in 1st set.
01/07/2019 - 02:10
iniestaone
It was really close though, Lajovic held tight until 4-5 and at one point at 30-30 he had an easy volley but blew it completely and got broken to 4-6, still not a bad bet and the set did not reflect the odds at all
01/07/2019 - 11:38
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