Bautista-Agut vs Berdych
So yesterday I got my analysis on Djokovic vs Bautista Agut right but my Cecchinato +3,5 vs Berdych went down the drain. It looked promising, Cecchinato was having a great first set and lost it 6-7 but lost the second 3-6 after being broken in the second game. This time, I am going for Berdych and I realise it might be an unpopular bet considering what we saw from Bautista Agut yesterday, but...
the match against Djokovic lasted for 2 hrs and 37 minutes. In the second set at 5-5 he looked completely drained and I thought Djokovic would win the match on endurance alone. But Bautista Agut managed to pull out his absolute top tier level play, the type that would win him a Grand Slam finale if that's what was played, and win the match after breaking Djokovic in the first game in the third and then holding serve.
Much like through out this tournament where Djokovic was getting worse and worse for each match, he was getting worse and worse for each set. Some Djokovic numbers:
Set 1: 1st serve points won: 75%, 2nd serve points won: 80%, 1st serve return points won: 26%, 2nd serve return points won: 57%
Set 2: 1st serve points won: 68%, 2nd serve points won: 53%, 1st serve return points won: 22%, 2nd serve return points won: 50%
Set 3: 1st serve points won: 58%, 2nd serve points won: 67%, 1st serve return points won: 15%, 2nd serve return points won: 40%
This plus some other stats show that Djokovic was not at his best, he smashed his racket with extreme fury in the finishing games of the second. I'm not sure how much emphasis should be put on B-A's win here, but I know for sure that his win against Djokovic is a massive factor in him being a huge favorite against Berdych. Which I think is a mistake, he should perhaps be the favorite but much closer to 1.90 than the current 1.60 average (Bet365 has him at 1.53....)
There were a lot of long rallies in this match, he spent more than an hour more on court than Berdych did vs Cecchinato and I just don't see B-A pulling off another performance like the one vs Nole. Berdych looked really solid vs Cecchinato, aside from some mistakes that are expected from a player who has been gone for so long he looked very solid on serve, especially his second serve. Had this been a semi final and the odds for B-A some 0.30 higher, I'd probably bet on him but considering the matches yesterday I see no other reasonable choice than trusting Berdych to clinch this one.
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Bautista-Agut vs Berdych prediction
|Berdych||Pinnacle||2.51||8||2-1 LOST (-8 units)|