Tsonga vs Medvedev D.
Tsonga was quite a large underdog against De Minaur in the Brisbane quarters (around 2.40-2.50) but managed to win in straight sets. He was broken once in the first set but broke De Minaur twice and won it 6-4, they followed up by holding serve in the second as Tsonga won it 7-6. He is yet to lose a set in Brisbane as he has knocked out Kokkinakis, Daniel and De Minaur in straights.
Medvedev on the other hand handled Raonic very well in his quarter final match as he won 6-7 6-3 6-4. Raonic's second serve was getting worse and worse for each set and it really let him down in the third as he won 7/18 points on it.
Tsonga's first sets in Brisbane so far: 7-6 vs Kokkinakis, 7-6 vs Daniel, 6-4 vs De Minaur.
Medvedev's first sets in Brisbane so far: 7-5 vs Murray, 6-7 vs Raonic
Tsonga has been breaking opponents and getting broken himself, but Medvedev is a better server than any of the three players he has faced so far in Brisbane. I don't doubt that Medvedev is going to hold his five first service games. Its more likely that Tsonga will get broken himself, but Medvedev isn't nearly as good of a returner as he is a server. He broke Raonic two times in two sets because Raonic was having an awful second serve, he won 50% of his second serve points in the second set and 39% of them in the third.
Considering the occasion (this being a semi final) and the court being very fast, I expect the first set to contain at least twelve games.
Tsonga vs Medvedev D. prediction
|1st set over 10.5||Bet365||2.10||8||6-7 WON (+8.8 units)|