Cecchinato vs Berdych
I had over 21.5 games in Cecchinato's match yesterday against Lajovic and it started great with a tiebreak won by the Italian. I assumed the bet was won by then because I really thought Lajovic would come back and take, at least, the 3 games I needed to win my bet but instead Cecchinato tore him to pieces and won the set 6-2, finishing the match with a total of 21 games. Incredibly frustrating.
But lets look at some stats from yesterday: both players were great on serve, there were only 13 second serves in the entire set and zero breakpoints for either of them. In the second set, Cecchinato stepped up his game even further and had a first serve percentage of 82 and he won 100% (4/4) of his second serves. He had solid net attacks and looked unbreakable from the baseline. I think he has every chance of defeating Berdych as well.
Berdych is yet to face a player of Cecchinato's stature this year, his comeback after a 6 months absence has been very good with wins against Kohlschreiber, Verdasco and most recently Herbert. But his serve has been letting him down at times and I think we're still a few months from seeing the best of Berdych.
I think this match could go either way and Cecchinato should probably be priced a bit lower, odds are dropping on him but he's still a 3.30-3.50 underdog and it should be around 2.90. Still, him being too big of an underdog gives us great odds for the +3,5 AH bet.
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Cecchinato vs Berdych prediction
|Cecchinato +3,5||Pinnacle||2.03||8||0-2 LOST (-8 units)|