Karlovic vs Gulbis
I would expect the odds for over 12.5 games in the first set to be 1.72, not 10.5 games so I see value here.
Karlovic is going strong in Pune, two straight set victories against Auger-Aliassime and Donskoy. These courts are fast so naturally his serve is a great weapon, the only set where his first serve percentage was lower than 70% was his second set vs Auger-Aliassime, other than that he's been very solid on serve as usual.
Gulbis has faced harder opponents in Sousa and Chung and his serve was not good at all vs Chung but there's also the factor of Chung being a good return player who managed to break Gulbis three times in their first set. This performance might play into the odds being so high for the total games here vs Karlovic, but Karlovic is on a much lower level than both Chung and Sousa when it comes to returns so I'll just ignore it and trust Gulbis to hold serve for at least five straight games in the first set while not managing to break Karlovic himself.
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Karlovic vs Gulbis prediction
|1st set over 10.5||Bet365||1.72||9||Won WON (+6.48 units)|