Djokovic vs Zverev
That is a match from the ATP finals in London between Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev.
Both of the players were drawn in Guga Kuerten group together with Marin Cilic and John Isner. Strangely or not, both of them also started with straight set wins and are the main favourites to proceed to the SFs. They have only 2 matches H2H and it's 1:1 after Zverev won on clay in 2017, but this year in Shanghai, a few weeks ago, Djokovic just smashed him. It was a one way traffic for the final 6:2 6:1 for the Serb in a match where the German was broken 4 times, while Zverev didn't even have a single chance for a break. The difference in their performances was outstandingly big and Djokovic was like a wall during the whole game. The difference, which also made the big difference between them, was the 2nd serve. The Serb won more than 50% of the points receiving it and that's why every single of his serving games turned into a nightmare.
If you expect a different story tomorrow, I recommend you to think twice. Zverev started with a win in two tiebreaks against Cilic, but he was losing in both sets with a break. After 1:4 in the 1st set, he was close to be even with two breaks down in it, but Cilic smashed a routine forehand in the net. Zverev just used the fact Cilic felt something like discomfort into the rallies from the baseline and also his 1st serve percentage was not so high. These two things made Cilic to go into a lot of rallies he wanted to avoid, especially on his serve and that also led to more unforced errors, most of them in situations when it was not the best time for sure and turned into breaks in the decisive moments. The first break for Zverev was when Cilic served for the 1st set, so there is no way that not to reflect on Cilic's confidence in the tiebreak. It happened also the same scenario in the 2nd set only with the difference, that the break for Zverev after being down, didn't happen in the last moment. To sum up, Zverev couldn't rely so much on his serve right now. He often missed his 1st serve and playing on his 2nd led to a lot of long rallies and serving games. That's the reason maybe he suffered some big losses in the recent weeks, especially the one against Khachanov in Paris. Ok, Djokovic was also beaten in the final there by the Russian, but it happened in two tough sets, while Zverev was totally outplayed winning just 3 games.
On the other side is Novak. He is back on track and had more than amazing second part of the season after his problems in the first part of 2018. He started with a win over John Isner with 6:4 6:3, avoiding to play even a single tiebreak against the American. Djokovic didn't have to deal with any break points during the whole match, his 1st serve was regularly in play and had one or two a little bit tougher serving games where he won to 30 or 40. But how frustrating was it for John Isner to hit serves with more than 140mph, kick serves, and still has his opponent to return the ball so deep almost every time. Sometimes it feels like hitting the ball on a wall. That is how good Djokovic has been and is right now. His defensive skills are top class and his ability to turn defense into attack in a point is astonishing.
I looked for different options as a pick, but chose to play Djokovic to win in straight sets. I played it yesterday evening, when the odds were 1.66 in bet 365 and 1.70 in Pinnacle, but obviously they dropped a lot and are 1.55 in Pinnacle right now. Only -4.5 games AH for Djokovic has a real value, but if one of the sets goes into a tiebreak, it will be so hard to be covered, although I expect a convincing win for Novak. I know I made more than expected even for me losses on tennis during 2018, especially in the 2nd part of the season, but it's because most of the players were totally unpredictable and we have two or three players we can actually rely playing on their favourite surfaces. But it is really hard to go against Djokovic right now. The Serb is once again at the peak of his powers. Zverev may feel he will lose this match even before going on to court, but he still has the game to trouble Djokovic. The German will need to serve at a consistently high level and hit an incredible high number of winners to stand a chance. Still feel Djokovic will have absolutely no problems in this group and dropping a single set will be surprising for me. He has such a great H2H against Inser and Cilic, it's time to have positive one also against the German!
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Djokovic vs Zverev prediction
|Djokovic -1.5 sets AH||Bet365||1.55||10||2-0 WON (+5.5 units)|