Nishikori vs Medvedev D.
That's the final match in Tokyo and it's between the two best players without a doubt- Kei Nishikori and Daniil Medvedev.
Both players showed excellent form not only in Tokyo, but also in the recent tournaments on hard courts after Wimbledon. Last year the champion was totally different-David Goffin, so it's time a Russian or Japanese player to lift the trophy. There is no doubt the audience will support Nishikori, because he is their compatriot, but the crowd doesn't win you trophy, they can only support and help you with huge motivation, you are the one, who has to make his homework correctly.
Nishikori beat everyone on his way in straight sets- Sugita, Paire, Tsitsipas and Gasquet. I was really surprised how Nishikori prevailed over his opponent in the SFs, because Gasquet had very positive stats against the Japanese and this win in straight sets was amazing. Gasquet was also in such a good form, but the aggression by Nishikori finally prevailed and he totally outplayed the Frenchman in the second set with 6:1. Nishikori plays unexpectedly hard-attacking from the baseline with a lot of power and aggression. Of course, that leads to more unforced errors, but there are very less players than him, who can performed better with that style. You know their names- Rafa, Roger and Novak. I can't see what chances Daniil will have defending against that style. He can be equal against Nishikori in typical mood, but in a final against such an aggressive Japanese infront of his home crowd in Tokyo. It looks like mission impossible.
Daniil is also very good during the tournament. He started from the qualifications and until now he also didn't drop a set in the main draw beating some very good opponents like Shapovalov, Raonic and Schwartzman. His stats in the SF against Shapovalov were so good, but Nishikori ones against Gasquet were even better and absolutely impressive.
I made the mistake a few weeks ago during US Open to bet on Medvedev against Coric when both players were in very good form and the Russian was embarassed with a loss in straight sets. This time I will not pick for Nishikori's win- the odds are too low for this site(1.40), so I will repeat my pick, which I gave in the SF Nishikori-Gasquet and it's Nishikori -2.5 games AH. I think the Japanese can cover it no matter if the match goes into three sets or finishes in straight sets.
PS: It's very, very rare to be so sure one player will win the trophy like this time. If I have to make a prediction it will be 95:5% for Nishikori before the start of the match. Maybe it sounds ridiculous, but I don't see how Medvedev will win the final. There is only one player who can beat Nishikori tomorrow and it's him playing more nervious than expected.
Nishikori vs Medvedev D. prediction
|Nishikori -2.5 games AH||Bet365||1.72||10||0-2 LOST (-10 units)|