Nadal vs Del Potro
2018 US Open, Semifinal 1
Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro will meet again. They have had some very important matches against each other this season. They met on Wimbledon quarterfinal as well on French Open semifinal before that. Plus, late in last season they played each other here on US Open, it was the same like now, semifinal match.
In all three mentioned matches Rafa has won and now he is 11-5 in total in this H2H.
The Spanish player is favorite also today but IMO Delpo stand nice chance this time.
First of all, Nadal was good but far from perfect. He defeated here Thiem in previous round but barely, after Tiebreak in the 5th set. Overall he was 2 games in deficit in that match. Before that in one of the rounds he defeated Khachanov, again barely, in 4 sets but every set was either TB either 7-5 result. So, at the end only 2 games difference in favor of Nadal.
Del Potro is such amazing server like Khacanov only even better I would say. Also overall as a player better than Khachanov so no doubt in my mind this will be very difficult task for Rafa.
Furthermore, in the mentioned the most recent mutual meetings, Nadal has won in 5 sets on Wimbledon and 3 games difference in total while in Paris it was easy win but Rafa on clay and on other faster surfaces, obviously not the same thing.
In the mentioned 2017 US Open clash, it was 3-1 but convincing win when games are in question. Del Potro took back then the opening set but then completely collapsed later on. Still, IMO there is big difference now and back then. Namely back then Delpo had very tough schedule and he has eliminated Thiem and Federer in super long matches before met Nadal.
Now, Del Potro is the one who had pretty easy path and was not losing too much energy unlike Nadal whose matches with Khachanov and this last one vs Thiem were real classics and really long matches. So, I feel that even Nadal must feel a little bit affected by that. And obviously good servers are not suit him here while Del Potro is the best server he will meet so far.
To be honest, I feel that Del Potro might even win this match and that is the only reason I skip over the totals although I am leaning in that direction too. But I am afraid that Delpo might win this in max 4 sets, maybe even in straight so I don't want to risk with over that wasn't exactly too good bet for me this year on men part of the draw. But, +3.5 games on Del Potro, that's seems very nice if you ask me.
This time just little bit lower stake, after all, the bet is against current world No. 1 and one of best ever. You never know with Nadal if he would find again some additional energy in situations when seems that he is done but even if he would do that again, I still think it wont be enough this time.
Nadal vs Del Potro prediction
|Del Potro +3.5 games||Pinnacle||1.79||6||Retirement PUSH (Stake return)|