Stephens vs Sevastova
2018 US Open. The first Quarterfinals on the women part of the draw.
Sloane Stephens is here the defending champion. On the other side Anastasija Sevastova already repeated her result from last season. Back then she was stopped in the quarter finals and it was exactly from this same opponent. So, for the second straight year we have them playing each other in the same round.
Year ago Stephens has won in three sets, 6-3, 3-6, 7-6. The American girl also has won the last mutual meeting,it was less than a month ago in Montreal 6-2, 6-2. Between those two, there was one more mutual match and back then Sevastova was better player. That match occurred late in 2017 in indoors conditions, 7-6, 6-3.
What we should expect now? Obviously Stephens is favorite and her possible loss would be huge surprise. But I think bettors moved this line way too much. Current 1.30 on Stephens IMO does not give the real picture. So, although I expect American player to win, I must say the value is on the side of the Latvian girl.
Sevastova is not some average player, she is world No.18 ans was even No.15. She has played nice tennis here in previous rounds.Yes, there were three sets matches for her in 3 of the 4 rounds but her match closing against Makarova (6-2) and Svitolina (6-0) was very strong.
So, I'll take the games with Sevastova. IMO +4.5 on Sevastova is way better option than Stephens 2-0 in sets for pretty much same odds.
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Stephens vs Sevastova prediction
|Sevastova +4.5||Pinnacle||1.84||8||0-2 WON (+6.72 units)|