Millman vs Federer

4th round match between Roger Federer and John Millman.

OK, I had the "amazing" luck to play every single of the surprises in US Open till now including Halep, Alex Zverev and Bertens combined with the unexpectedly brilliant display from Federer against Kyrgios and the awful defensive play by Genk yesterday against Kortrijk led to my big negative balance, so it's time to fix the mess. I am going to do it with more tips connected with the national teams in the end of the week, but before that I will try with a few tennis picks. The first one is with not great value, so you don't have to follow it, if the odds are not okay for you. The pick is simple-Federer to beat John Millman 3:0 sets(1.48 odds right now in PInnacle).

Roger has three wins till now in straight sets. Against Nick he had problems on serve only in one game in the 1st set, when it was 4:4. Nick missed four break chances and then he was broken for the final 6:4. That was the key moment for his loss. Against Paire and Nishioka he also had some moments when he made a few more unforeced errors and even was broken, but he showed one break on his serve or even two is not a big deal, because he is far more aggresive in this tournament, which leads to much bigger control in the points, when he is not bombed by his opponent and have a chance for good returns.

Millman is not Kyrgios. He can not serve like the other Aussie, but is much better in rallies. I think he will have so many problems tonight against the affression by Federer. It reminds me to the Fed express we saw in Wimbledon 2017, when he eliminated every opponent on his way with easiness in straight sets, There he also played with much more aggression and led him to the success. When we add the fact Millman had a lot of problems on serve in his last two matches against Fognini and Kukushkin the things doesn't look too good for him. I will not tak about his match against Brooksby in the 1st round, because they are from totally different levels, but both Fabio and Mikhail Kukushkin served awful against Millman and that was the main factor he won his matches against them. Almost every single break chance Fabio had on Millman's serve was turned into a break. Against Kukushkin the Aussie had to save break chances in EIGHT of his service games and was broken 5 times. So, you can smell he will have a lot of problems tonight if Federer finds his rhythm from the start of the match, which is going to be the last on the central court.

They have only one match in Brisbane 2015 when Federer won in three sets, but you know it's the start of the season in Brisbane and all players need time to adapt to the official matches after the break. Now Federer looks like in very solid form and I don't want to risk here with AH about the games. I was thinking about -7.5 games AH, but luck is not on my side right now, so I will play a few much safer picks in the next couple of days before the national teams matches, with a little lower odds. It's you choice to follow them or not :)) Everyone has his own strategy.

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Millman vs Federer prediction

Tip Bookmaker Odds * Stake Result
Federer in straight sets Pinnacle 1.48 10 3-1 LOST (-10 units)
* Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.
+11 -8
Comments (3)
Isaack Newton
what does this mean mate? cant see the option at my local bookie... what if i give federer straight win?
09/03/2018 - 13:28
Stan
It means Federer to win 3:0 sets
09/03/2018 - 18:29
Ives
Dont worry about the bad streak bro, youre still one of the best here!
09/03/2018 - 20:29
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