Anderson vs Djokovic
Kevin Anderson against Novak Đoković. So, it will be Đoković after all in the finals although I expected Nadal. Just short recap about that SF. Who could expect the first SF would last so long (7 hours and 26-24 in the 5th) and that Novak vs Rafa match would then start so late meaning in the indoor condition? That completely has changed everything and gave the small edge to Serbian player. Still, even like that, I liked the chances of Nadal but beside closed roof we were again unlucky that very long match of five sets in fact turned out to be two days match (again due to fact of late ending of previous semifinal). So, IMO although Nadal is better prepared player, his better physical condition couldn't decide when you have long match but interrupted and continued tomorrow. So, I really feel it was unlucky lost bet.
In any case, I am on Đoković in the finals. -5.5 games handicap seems to me as the line Novak should cover.
All credits for Kevin Anderson, he had amazing tournament and already made his biggest success here by reaching this finals. Plus he will reach Top 5 (his best rankings ever) no matter of the outcome in the finals. But meeting with Đoković could be too much for him. BTW, that's his first Wimbledon finals but second Grand Slam finals overall after he was already finalist on last season US Open. Back then Nadal easily dealt with him.
Honestly, at first I was thinking about taking Anderson +2.5 sets. And really, he could win here set but odds for that are only around 1.70. Plus, if he wins the set, probably it would be in some tiebreak. So, again Novak has good chance to cover -5.5 even with lost set.
BTW, when Anderson and Đoković met the last time, it was also here at Wimbledon. Back then Anderson was 2-0 in sets up but still lost at the end 2-3 and with 7 games difference. The reason was, he won both sets on Tiebreak while sets he lost, he was losing convincingly.
Don't forget that also in this season QF, Federer crashed him in two first sets and was already 5 games up. But now definitely too old Federer wasn't able to hold on. Against Đoković the big South African IMO can't hope that he would be in advantage if the match went too long.
Anderson had day off yesterday while Novak had to finish his SF clash with Nadal, that's true. So, from that angle Anderson might hold the small edge. But we shouldn't forget his 13:11 in the 5th against Federer in QF as well 26:24 against Isner in the SF. So, if fatigue matters at all, Anderson is the one who spent more or to be more correct way more time on the court.
Beside the mentioned mutual meeting on 2015 Wimbledon, Anderson and Đoković met once more here. Back then it was even easier 3-0 Novak's win. Overall, Novak is 5-1 in this H2H.
I feel today's match will be pretty much one way traffic. As I already mentioned, Anderson might take one set (in TB) but hardly more than that. His powerful serv definitely won't be so huge weapon when he face Novak who is the best returner on the ATP tour.
Predicted result 3-1 in sets and 24:17 in games.
Anderson vs Djokovic prediction
|Đoković -5.5 games||Pinnacle||1.96||10||0-3 WON (+9.6 units)|