Federer vs Kyrgios
Roger Federer failed to cover -4.5 yesterday in match vs Pella and thus my bet on him was lost although Federer has won in straight sets.
I was very disappointed with Federer performance. I expected way better tennis from him. He has made one break during the mid of the first set and that was all. Then break in the first game of the second set but no new break of serve in rest of the match. Not even the chance. What more, Pella was the one who had double break points to tie at 5-5 in the second.
Clearly, final 6:4/6:4 was also a little bit unlucky for my bet cause Federer opened the match on the return. If was the opposite, the match would finish with 6:3/6:4.
In any case, Federer was pretty modest, he is not on the level he was on grass in 2017. At least note yet. Probably he will be better today but now he need to face Kyrgios and that's much tougher opponent. Note that Pella until this year had only 8 matches on grass in entire career. Kyrgios is different animal on grass. His superb service gives him big wind in the back on this surface.
To be honest I expect Kyrgios to win the match but given on the offered odds, I'll take him in +1.5 set handicap.
BTW, Kyrgios has good history of previous mutual meetings. It's 1-1 in H2H plus one more win for Federer in non ATP match. In any case, in all those matches we saw max 3 sets and only one set of nine didn't go into tiebreak.
Today's match should be close too. Maybe also games handicap on Kyrgios is not bad option too.
Federer vs Kyrgios prediction
|Kyrgios +1.5 set||Pinnacle||1.88||8||2-1 WON (+7.04 units)|