Halep vs Muguruza
Halep against Muguruza in the semifinals. For me this is finals before finals, who ever wins here would be in clear edge over better from Keys/Stephens semifinals.
Muguruza is set for slight favorite, for good reason I would say at first look. She has two GS titles including one here in Paris from 2016. Halep hopes to win its first this season. Muguruza is 3-1 in this H2H, one more advantage for her. And third, Spanish girl destroyed Sharapova yesterday and spent not too much time on the court whilst Halep played tough three sets match with Kerber.
But, if I want, I could challenge all those reasons. First, fact she is yet to win GS, IMO is not anymore pressure for Halep. She showed yesterday against great Kerber that she won't choke anymore when things starts badly. Furthermore, yes it's 3-1 in favor of Muguruza but only so far match on clay Halep has won. And finally, fact she spent more time on the court yesterday is not worrying cause Halep IMO is in great physical condition. Also, I am not worrying about phenomenal victory of Muguruza over Sharapova. Fact that I took Muguruza yesterday and it was not to win but to win 2-0, it's clear indicator I expected Sharapova won't be able to cope with Muguruza. And it was like I predicted. Problems with first serve, then if she took more risk on second it was double fault, if she hit weak second service then no chance at all. It was at some point near to end of opening set something like one of eight won points on second serv for Sharapova.
I am saying, don't won't to underestimate Muguruza victory, she played great, but Sharapova helped a lot, that's a fact. IMO no much free points for Muguruza today.
Halep is not as strong server like Sharapova but her second serv is better than Sharapova second was yesterday. In any case, it's not the serve to decide today. IMO long rallies will decide and there I give advantage to Halep. Yes, Muguruza looks impressive with her body, tall girl, hit hard but Halep is the real deal, the world No.1. You saw yesterday how great Halep played when was 0-1 down. Full of confidence and all that with Kerber being able to hit back some amazing defending shots. Halep in many occasions had to hit two to three additional "winners" to they really becomes winners. But Halep never lost her head like most of other players would when the opponent manages continuously to stay in the point although the point should be over long ago. And the most impressive for me was the moment when Halep hit some deep drive volleys almost from the base line. It's something you won't see too often on the WTA tour. That's clear sign she is confident in her shots.
So, although I said Muguruza was great on this tournament and although I must admit she could win today, I still believe a little bit more in Halep this time. But my pick isn't on her. The reason is cause I took Halep outright before tournament started. So, no reason for me to bet her again in SF. Since I am not betting her today, I won't give pick on her either cause I am giving here only the bets I bet for real.
But I will bet over the totals. If this match stay under, then I don't know which one can go over. This simply MUST go over.
3 of the 4 mutual went into third set including the only one on clay that I mentioned above.
BTW, there is interesting trend in last few days, trend that I expect to stop today. Namely, every time, either on women or men draw, when we have such more or less tied match by the odds, it happens to one of players easily win. On the other side, just the opposite, when we have clear favorite and when it's realistic to we see fast match and under, it was finished with over the totals.
But, this match between Halep and Muguruza will stop the mentioned trend. This is the match whose outcome will follow the offered odds. This is the match that really will be tied as odds are suggesting. No easy win here for either of these two great players.
I expect easy profit with Over and hope for a jackpot with outright bet. Go Halep!
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Halep vs Muguruza prediction
|Over 21.5||Pinnacle||1.84||10||2-0 LOST (-10 units)|