Nadal vs Schwartzman (By: FairPlayBet)
Nadal and Schwartzman in the QF match that need to be finished after yesterday's rain delay. Currently it's 4:6/5:3 and 30:15 on Nadal's serv.
So, the Argentinian surprised Rafa and took the first set. What more he was early break up also in the second set, the deficit that Nadal immediately erased but Schwartzman made new break and took 3:2 lead. Counting also even three breaks of serve that Rafa suffered in the opening set, that was even five breaks overall in only 8 Nadal's service games. Hardly Rafa ever experienced something like that on clay. So the rain was the best what could happened for Spanish player. After they got back on the court, three straight games for Rafa including two on the Schwartzman service. And then there was new rain delay.
There is no doubt that Schwartzman had its chance, he could go 2-0 up but the first rain ruined everything for him. Today when the match resumes, I can hardly believe Schwartzman will be able to make something serious. Honestly, I expect to Nadal destroys him in rest of the match and to cover this -6.5 games.
When he close the second set with 6:3, Nadal would be at +1 and we would need six more in third and fourth. I think one of those sets, probably 4th, will be huge and we won't be in trouble for this -6.5.
IMO Schwartzman can't defend from Nadal's top spins that bounce back high. For a short guy like Schwartzman is, this should be huge problem. Still, we didn't see it too often yesterday but we should today.
Also note that Rafa had small problem with his wrist and had to take medical time out. It wasn't anything too serious but it's possible that affected him a little bit yesterday early in the match so that was a reason Schwartzman looked better on the court in that opening set.
By the way, nice 1.80 odds at bet365, Pinnacle offers currently only 1.68 on the same -6.5 line.
Nadal vs Schwartzman prediction
|Nadal -6.5 games||Bet365||1.80||8||22-13 WON (+6.4 units)|