Muguruza vs Halep
SF match in Roland Garros between N3 seeded Garbine Muguruza and N1 seeded Simona Halep.
I will start that this should be the final in Paris, they are the best in the tournament so far and practically this is the final before the big final. I doubt the winner of this match will have much problems against Keys or Stephens in the final, so they have to play at their max here to progress. It won't be an easy match for both of them and three sets are absolutely possible here, but that won't be my pick, because I don't know what's happening at this tournament, but always chose over in a match, where one of the players have physical problem and it goes to a straight set win like Djokovic-Verdasco when Verda had a problem with his foot, Zverev-Thiem, when Zverev was also injured, but decided to finish the match.. I have to say that I was on the verge of playing Muguruza-Sharapova-Muguruza+over 2.5 sets, but in the last minute decided just to pick Muguruza going with my gut. Now it says the same again with the feeling it will be a 3-set match..maybe this time it will happen, but will go with Muguruza and there are a few reasons to do it once again.
Garbine wasn't performing well on clay after the end of the hard-court season with two early exits and with negative stats 2 wins/3 losses before RG. But what's going on in Paris? Muguruza looks totally reborn and with an eager to win against everyone on her way to the title. Finally I see the player and performance she showed during 2016 when she got the trophy in Paris. She is so accurate from the baseline playing deeply with really strong shots. Her aggression and accuracy were the key to win so easy against Sharapova in the QFs and in the 1/8 finals against Stosur giving them absolutely no chances. Her service also works really good and I think it will give her the advantage tomorrow against Simona. I know that Simona never gives up, she tries to catch every single ball, no matter if it's out of her reach and somehow she will have to deal with Muruguza's aggression and accuracy. I really dont know how she will do it right now against the Spaniard in such a brilliant form. Muguruza is much more aggressive and confident than Kerber in Paris and I wasn't impressed at all by Halep against Kerber today. Her start was so slowly being 4:0 down, but steadily started to find her rhythm and turned the match. If she did the same tomorrow against Garbine, she will be finished really fast like Sharapova, because the Spaniard just need the spark to explode on the court.
H2H Muguruza leads 3:1 with only one match on clay in Stuttgart 2015, where Halep won in three sets after comeback. In all of their matches Simona was bookies' favorite and lost 3 of them on hard courts, especially the last one in Cincinnati's final 2017 winnign just one game. Of course, it won't happen such a scenario here, that's for sure.
To sum up, there are three main reasons which make me believe Muguruza will progress to the final. Firstly, the match will be played in perfect conditions at Philippe Chatrier court. Garbine has told and written in posts a few times she loves to play on this court, it's inspiring for her and she prefers to play there in comparison with Suzanne Lenglen. Secondly, she didn't drop a single set so far and she performs better and better during the tournament. If somehow she finds a way to beat Halep in straight sets tomorrow, I will play her to win in straight sets in the final for sure.Infact that's not impossible when we see that all Halep's losses on clay this season were in straight sets. Thirdly and most important- finally I see Muguruza at her best. This is even better copy of the player she was in Roland Garros 2016.
With impressive last match against Halep in Cincinnati, amazing current form, while Halep doesn't look so convenient right now after what we saw against Kerber today, I have full confidence in Garbine Muguruza. This will be the biggest test for both of them, that's why I wrote it's a final before the real final. In my eyes the chances before the final are 60:40 for the Spaniard.
PS: I know Romanians will downvote this pick a lot of times, I'm ok with that, because their player reaches the SF in Grand Slam. That's amazing, but when we are betting, we have to avoid the fact that our compatriot is on the court for example. Most of the times that dazzles us and we can't take the right decision, because we want our player to win. It can happen, of course, but the Spaniard to progress is much more possible for me.
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Muguruza vs Halep prediction
|Muguruza||Bet365||1.90||9||0-2 LOST (-9 units)|