Djokovic vs Verdasco
Đoković against Verdasco, the winner is going into QF. IMO Novak is the one to came out victorious from this match. But, we need to choose the right option.
To be honest, my initial thought here was to bet the Spanish player in some kind of form, handicap sets for example cause seems Verdasco could take one set. Or over the totals seemed to me great choice if we assume Verdasco will take a set.
But after a little deeper analysis, I am not so confident in Fernando Verdasco.
He was successful against Novak in the past and collected even five wins (11 losses) plus he is 3-2 on clay courts. But the last time Verdasco beat Đoković was long back into 2010. This is now 2018 and although Novak is not anymore the best on the ATP tour, it should be mentioned also that Verdasco is 35 years old now. That being said, I see big advantage for the Serb if this turn to be long match. I really belive Novak could cover this line late in the match even if he loses set. I definitely expect to former world No.1 wins at least one set in very convincing manner.
I have opinion this what we saw so far is not the real Đoković. I got impression he is way better than that. Especially I refer on the second round match when in my eyes was clear Novak could win without droping more than 6 to 7 games but he lost as much already in the opening set playing tiebreak. I mean he is 5:2 up and then starts experimenting something against clearly much weaker rival. Trying to hit aces on second service and thus going 0:40 etc.
In any case, Verdasco is the most serious opponent so far and someone who as mentioned is 3:2 on clay in this H2H, so I excpect to this time we will see the real Đoković, his real current best and that IMO should be enough for covering this line.
Also, I think we can question if Verdasco really was so good so far. Well done for his three nice victories but the draw for him was not too tough, isn't it?
Even Dimitrov who on paper is top player, is not in very best form and not too good on clay.
If we take a look on Verdasco's results before Paris, we would see some convincing losses against players far from Novak's level. Dzumhur allowed to Verdasco only 4 games, against Mayer the Spanish player won just 3 games. And we are not talking about some small tournaments, that was on Masters in Rome and Madrid.
For me, Verdasco was in far better form early in the year during the first part of the clay season while now after hard court American tour, when we are back on clay again, I don't see the Spanish player on such level.
Novak Đoković -5.5 handicap games, that's my call.
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Djokovic vs Verdasco prediction
|Đoković -5.5 games||Pinnacle||1.84||8||18-9 WON (+6.72 units)|