Nadal vs Fognini
1st QF match between Rafa Nadal and Fabio Fognini in Rome.
10:3 H2H for Rafa Nadal. That speaks a lot who's the favorite here, but two of Fognini's wins are on clay in 2015 in Rio and Barcelona. If we try to analyse their matches on clay- 5 wins for Rafa and 2 for Fognini, only the first win for Nadal was easy, all of the other had at least one set which finished 7:5/7:6 or even wins in three sets for Rafa. Except the first one, in all of the other we see over 18.5 games which is my tip. Also the match is in Italy, Penetta is in the audience, supporting Fabio and the crowd is in his favor.. I don't think Fabio will disappoint here so many people and will lose for less than an hour with 3/4 games in his pocket.
Fognini is doing very well till now in Rome and I really enjoyed his match against Dominic Thiem and Monfils. He showed so many positive things, which give me hope he can reach t least in one of the sets a situation 5:5 or tiebreak, which will practically makes the tips right. The Italian has so much talent and after two easy matches for Rafa against Dzumhur and Shapovalov, where he lost 1 and 5 games, I think it's time for a way much harder opponent and match. Also Nadal never humiliates players in front of their own crowd. He plays consistently, but not at his max for sure. I believe if Fabio shows what he really has as qualities, he can be equal to Nadal at least in one of the sets, no matter if he will still lose in straight sets.
Nadal vs Fognini prediction
|over 18.5 games||Pinnacle||1.81||9||2-1 WON (+7.29 units)|