Nadal vs Thiem
QF match in Madrid between Rafa Nadal and Dominic Thiem.
Rafa Nadal broke one more record yesterday- he beat McEnroe with the longest row of winning sets on one surface. He did that in Roland Garros last season, Monte Carlo, Barcelona and here in Madrid. Yesterday Rafa looked stressed a little bit because he knew he had to win in straight sets against a player like Schwartzman who is brilliant in defensive play especially on that surface. Rafa won it 6:3 6:4 and now the pressure is totally gone. He can finish the last matches much more calmed, but I think this will influence him even positively and he will destroy everyone on his way in straight sets till he grabs the title.
The match is second from the men draw in the daily schedule, so it won't be played so late like yesterday. We know that Rafa loves playing in warmer daily conditions(not so hot, but temperatures like today's ones 22-23°C are absolutely perfect for him). So everything looks perfect for Rafa to have big advantage over Thiem one more time. Rafa destoryed the Austrian 6:0 6:2 in Monte Carlo and I don't see any option Thiem to be equal to Nadal in Madrid. Yeah, Nadal's most successes on clay are in the French Open, Monte Carlo and Barcelona, but he also knows perfectly well how to grab this title. Last year Thiem was the second best on clay after Nadal and he was almost equal to Nadal in Madrid's final- 7:6 6:4 for Nadal, but the form of Rafa is the big difference here. None of his opponents won more than 5 five games against him in Monte Carlo, the situation was almost the same in Barca where none of the players won more than 5 games, except Carballes Baena who won 8 games (6:4 6:4). Here in Madrid he destroyed Monfils in the start and if it wasn't the record and the fact he played late in the evening I think he could also destroy Diego, but it was quite admissible defeat for the Argentinian 6:3 6:4.
After the loss in Rome last season Nadal is amazingly concentrated against Thiem and he proved that in Roland Garros last year and in Monte Carlo. Together with the support of the audience and with the fact that McEnroe's record is broken after more than 30 years I think Rafa will play much more calm and will produce his best once again. I really doubt Thiem will win more than 5/6 games in this match, so under 18.5 games in very possible outcome. When we know that Thiem is so far away from his last year's form losing to Nadal so badly in Monte Carlo winning only two games, together with the loss by Tsitsipas 6:3 6:2 in Barcelona QFs... even Coric could make this under 18.5 games against Thiem yesterday, because the Croatian was leading 6:2 5:4 with a break and can finish the match on his serve but was broken and then Thiem turned the match in his favour.
I don't see Rafa to lose concentration against a player, who perfectly knows how dangerous can be! Comfortable win for the Spaniard from me in straight sets.
Nadal vs Thiem prediction
|Under 18.5 games||William Hill||1.85||9||0-2 LOST (-9 units)|