Dimitrov vs Goffin
QF match in Monte Carlo between Grigor Dimitrov and David Goffin.
I will start with the fact these two players play together in the doubles and they also progressed to the QFs, so they know their momentum form perfectly well. Grigor had really though starts of his two previous matches on clay against Herbert and Kohlschreiber, but slowly started to find his rhythm and won both matches in three sets. He doesn't look confident, it's obvious, but even in such a form, playing not on his best surface, he finds the way to progress. I don't know why but in both of his matches in Monte Carlo, he woke up in the start of the second set, while in the first he played almost like an amateur making unforced errors from everywhere. Then in the next sets he was totally different player and outplayed his opponents. Such a performance against Goffin on clay will be punished and obviously it's not a good idea to give the Belgian the control over the match from the start.
Goffin is also not in his best form. He has two straight set wins, but they were not so easy. Both of his matches were very close against Tsitsipas and Agut. Today he played amazingly good in the first set against the Spaniard, making almost no mistakes with very high percentage on first serve. Then he took the lead in the second set with a double break and we saw the typical Goffin, who is capable of getting back in a set from 1:5 to 5:5, but also leading with the same result and losing the set. he had match point leading 6:4 5:2 on his serve, but couldn't finish the match and he was broken twice before the final outburst when it was 5:5 to win it 7:5. Against Tsitsipas there were also a lot of ups and downs, so tomorrow's match between Grigor and David looks totally unpredictable.
Grigor's form is not the best one, but this QF could give him wings again and why not to see tomorrow different performance by him with a strong start which is typical for him when he plays against Goffin.Goffin was injured against Girgor in Rotterdam when a ball hit him in the eye and that's the reason he was out for a while. He tried to play in Miami, but it was obvious he was not ready losing to Sousa 6:0 6:1. Now both of the players look fresh, full of energy, but also far away from their best form.
Head to head, if we count their Futures and Challenger matches, Grigor comfortably leads 9:1 against Goffin and it's hard for the Belgian even to win a set in most of the cases. Now bookies put Goffin as a slight favorite and believe me, Grigor plays much more motivated when he's counted as an outsider like it was against Kyrgios in Mellbourne for example(there Kyrgios was the slight favorite to win, but Grigor made maybe his best match after this one against Nadal in AO 2017). Winner of this match is expected to face Rafa in the SFs, so the motivation will be even bigger to see what's your level in the start of the clay season against the best one on this surface.
There's no doubt I will go with Grigor. He always plays good, when he's counted as an outsider, although it's just a slight advantage for Goffin. Also the stats are totally for Grigor, they play together in doubles and know their momentum form. If I can bet on breaks in this match, I would win fore sure, for example over 4.5 breaks in the match, but i don't think it's possible. Grigor-Nadal in Monte Carlo SF match- that would be a real fairytale with a big chance to happen in my eyes. If you are not sure, don't follow it, cause it's risky for sure, but I couldn't miss to play my compatriot in this case as a slight outsider.
Dimitrov vs Goffin prediction
|Dimitrov||Pinnacle||2.08||9||2-0 WON (+9.72 units)|