Martin vs Moutet
The market for this line to go over opened at 2.01 this morning, I think it'll drop a bit more until the match starts
I predicted Martin's straight set victory yesterday and while its always a big deal when somebody ranked 156 demolishes a top 10 player like that, I don't think we should draw too big conclusions from it as Carreno's second serve was absolutely dreadful and he looked like he wanted to leave Ecuador right after the match. It was good of Martin to hold his composure and frustrate Carreno with solid plays, especially from the baseline from where he set up some nice points, I still think that its wrong to make him this big of a favorite based on that match. He stands at around 1.71 on average after dropping down from 1.95. He's going to be facing a completely different opponent in Moutet.
The Frenchman held his ground against Karlovic and defeated him in three. The numbers read 7-5 6-7 7-6 - exactly what you'd expect vs Karlovic - and he won a decent number of points on his first serve, 83%, which is very good considering Karlovic himself was at 89% and we all know that his serve is his best weapon by far. Prior to Karlovic he defeated Menendez-Maceiras who is one of those Spaniards who are better than what clay courters usually are on fast surfaces.
I think this one will go to three sets. Both Martin and Moutet are playing good tennis in Quito right now. I can't call a winner, my gut tells me Moutet will win this one, but over 22.5 games seems very reasonable. A set each would not surprise me. Martin has in my opinion a better serve but they are both quick, agile players and there'll be many rallies. Moutet is only 18 but that doesn't show at all and if he could handle Karlovic I am sure he can handle Martin on return as well.
Expect a long match between two motivated and equal players
Martin vs Moutet prediction
|Over 22.5||Pinnacle||1.96||8||2-0 LOST (-8 units)|