Carballes Baena vs Nicolas Jarry
Jarry is coming off a 2-1 win against Travaglia where he had two breakpoints at 4-4 but the Italian managed to serve it out and make it 5-4. Jarry was then broken when Travaglia got his first breakpoint of the match in that tenth game. He came back and won the remaining two sets 7-6 6-3 unbroken. He was serving at 59% against Travaglia and 62% against Bagnis, and they were both three setters. The way I see it, he can only improve.
C-B qualified against Escobar and went on to defeat Gaio and Lorenzi in straight sets. He was a big favorite against Gaio but a slight underdog against Lorenzi and that match could've gone either way. C-B won the first set 7-6, he had a set point against him at 5-6. He held his serve in the second set and broke Lorenzi at 6-5 but he blew two match points before taking advantage of a third.
Jarry will not be as easy to break as Lorenzi and Gaio are and he won't give the Spaniard second chances. C-B does not have a powerful enough serve for him to rely on it and Jarry will most likely be very aggressive on his second serve. This could go to three sets but in the end I think considering how fast the courts in Quito are, Jarry has the upper hand.
As of this morning, odds have been dropping on Jarry. 1XBet has him at 1.81, dropping from 1.93. I think he might drop down to 1.85 but I doubt it'll be more than that.
Carballes Baena vs Nicolas Jarry prediction
|Jarry||Pinnacle||1.91||8||2-1 LOST (-8 units)|