Carreno-Busta vs Martin
I think Martin has a bigger chance of winning than most might believe and if he is to win, I believe a straight set win is the most likely outcome. Should this go to three sets, he'll most likely collapse mentally and throw the match as Carreno-Busta is much stronger in that department.
So, Martin already has two matches played in Quito: straight set wins vs Sakamoto and Dutra Silva. His serve works really well in Quito, he had 9 aces against Dutra Silva. Martin is actually a better server than clay courters usually are, he has a lot of experience from indoor tennis where his serve is a good weapon. Quito as a tournament fits him very well too, he was here in 2016 when he qualified through Gomez Hemery and defeated Granollers-Pujol in the first round before he ran into Estrella and lost in two. Last year he didn't have to qualify but was unfortunate enough to face Estrella in the first round, he took the first set but eventually lost. He's been unlucky to face Estrella 2/2 times so early on, everything I've seen from him in Quito tells me he feels at home here.
Carreno-Busta is making his first clay tournament of the year. Aside from exhibition matches he has played in Doha, where he got knocked out by Coric in the first, and Australian Open where he won against Kubler and Muller (and Simon who retired) before Cilic knocked him out. He came to the quarter finals in Quito in 2016 but on the way there he hardly faced proper opposition as he defeated Dutra Silva and Cervantes before his loss to Bellucci.
I don't think C-B has started the year in a convincing manner, he has struggled through his wins and I'm not sure how seriously he will take Quito. He has important points to defend in upcoming Buenos Aires and Rio (semi final/final) later this month and the way I see it, Quito is just a stopover for him on his way to Argentina. Meanwhile, I fully believe Martin is motivated to play here and from what I see in him in Quito, he enjoys his time on the courts here.
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Carreno-Busta vs Martin prediction
|Martin 2-0||Pinnacle||6.87||4||0-2 WON (+23.48 units)|