Estrella vs Bellucci
I wish I had taken this sooner because Estrella started off as a 1.80ish favorite vs Bellucci at the bookies but has now dropped a lot. Still, there is great value here and 1.60 is very good considering what a special circumstance this is.
Plenty of things speak for Estrella. First of all, he is literally the GOAT of Quito as he has won it 3 times, making him the only winner Quito has ever seen. Obviously there is something special about it that makes him take a title every time he lands in Ecuador because he has beaten players that are usually better than him here and he has repeated that several times. For instance, I would rate Bellucci as a much better player than Estrella in general but Estrella has beaten him 4/4 times and 3 of those have been in Quito since 2015. Their matches here have been very close but one has to take into account that Bellucci has never faced Estrella in worse shape than now: he had severe injury problems last summer and made his final match of the 2017 season in early August. He made his comeback in Australian Open this year vs Brown who defeated him in three. So now Bellucci has travelled to Ecuador to face a crowd favorite that creates an amazing atmosphere in what is "his" tournament. The only outcome I see is a win for Estrella and despite his age (36) I think it'll be more convincing than the last three vs Bellucci.
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Estrella vs Bellucci prediction
|Estrella||Pinnacle||1.60||8||2-1 WON (+4.8 units)|