Ruud vs Berlocq
This has to be today's best bet. The odds movement was really, really strange and I didn't want to write or put any money on this despite Ruud being such an obvious pick here due to the bookies constantly raising the odds on him during yesterday evening and night. I thought I must have missed something so I fine combed the tennis news but found no articles or anything that would explain why Ruud went from a 1.65ish favorite to a 1.94 underdog. Seemingly, it doesn't matter as several of the big bookies are now lowering the odds on a Ruud win.
Which makes perfect sense. He is 8/3 this year and looking very sharp and ready for the new season, he dropped out of Australian Open in his last match vs Schwartzman but took wins vs Ito, Popko, Escobedo and Halys to get there. And hardcourts are not his favored surface.
Meanwhile, Berlocq is making his first match of the season and I don't think he will be able to simply jump into a tournament like Quito and play on his highest level. I don't think he will even get close to reaching his highest level: the Quito courts are very fast due to high altitude and Berlocq is 35 years now, who knows how long his tireless style of tennis is going to last. Fact is that he plays his very best tennis, arguably the sole tennis that is keeping him near the top 100 rank is the one he gets to play on slow clay courts and he won't have any surface advantage over Ruud in Quito. There is a reason for why he has never played Quito before, yes, it has only existed since 2015 but its a clay court ATP and there is no reason for him not to have played it before unless it literally has been because it was last his choice every year. There is nothing else going on in South America right now which explains why he is here.
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Ruud vs Berlocq prediction
|Ruud||Pinnacle||1.90||8||2-0 WON (+7.2 units)|