Ostersunds vs Arsenal by Sweem

A cold winter is still hanging heavy in Sweden, and Ostersund will appear in their biggest ever match in their history when they host Arsenal at Jamtkraft Arena. It will be around -10 degrees celcius and dry air - very typical Ostersund weather at this time of the year.

UEFAs freezing limit suggests that any game worse than -15 might not be played. However, it is likely that the game will be played anyway. It takes exteme conditions for it not to happen. However, the fact that this is even mentioned shows that it is challenging conditions for any visiting side in particular.

Arsenal are in the middle of a turbulent season on their part. One day it is darker than ever, and the next day it calms down again. For example, following the loss against Swansea (3-1) on the 30th of January, the Gunners bounced back and beat Everton (5-1) at home. The mood certainly swings. However, in Europa League - Arsenal have been more predictable in terms of their line ups and often rotate.

Regardless of the squad situation at Arsenal, they will be able to field a strong squad. Even though the Gunners have mainly fielded a reserve inspired eleven during the group stages, we can expect Arsenal to start taking the Europa League slightly more serious in their line up choices from now on. Their position in Premier League suggest that Champions League is far from granted, as they struggle to establish themselves among the top four. The trick could be to win Europa League, which would of course secure a spot in Champions League next season.

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Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang can not participate for Arsenal in Europa League, and Arsene Wenger uses the phrase "there is possibility to give time to many players", hinting at non regularly used Premier League players. Henrik Mkhitaryan is however allowed to feature in the Europa League squad. The Armenian was recently added, together with center back Konstantinos Mavropanos and Santi Cazorla, despite his injury concerns.

Arsene Wengers men will experience something they can barely imagine when coming to Ostersunds. No team in Englands top divisions play on artificial surface and especially not a hard frozen turf in -10 degrees in such an excluded distanced location. Ostersunds have not been playing actively since their last group stage match took place - but they did travel to Marbella in Spain for a training camp where they faced Lokomotiv Moscow (3-3) and Dynamo Kiev (2-2) in friendly matches.

They also played their first match in the Swedish Cup against new comers Trelleborg which ended in a 3-0 victory at home. Squad wise, Ostersunds have lost midfielder Fouad Bachirou (12/1) to Malmo FF. The loss is significant, as Bachirou was one of the most comfortable players on the ball and also in terms of being the key ball winner on the midfield to retain possession. Also, wing back Gabriel Somi (8/1) left for New England in MLS.

Arrivals include forward Dino Islamovic with experience from Holland and England and defender Sonko Sundberg from AIK. All in all, Ostersunds will come to play without two main players who used to feature in the group stage, but have kept the squad balanced with the additions too.

It is difficult to pick a side in this match. Ostersund are undefeated at home in Europe. Arsenal are inconsistent but have gotten a small positive injection after the transfer window. Although they rarely waste energy in away matches and prefer to rotate in the squad, they will be surprised by Ostersunds possession and attacking threat on this artificial turf. However, as we have seen in Ostersunds recent matches, they have started to concede goals, 3-3 and 2-2 in friendlies does not suggest stability at the moment.

I believe Arsenal are too good to leave the field without a goal, but they will have to work hard for it. Ostersund will also have good chances to find the net, which is why both teams to score is my favorite selection. That being said, I also feel that the value on Ostersund is interesting, because this will be so much different than what Arsenal are used to.

Bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 with Unibet
Result: 0-3 (lost)
 * Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.
+123 -28

25 Comments

  1. donmilz says:

    agreed…am with you.

  2. Kunle George says:

    Sweem, where have you been? I have missed your predictions. Thanks for this. I’m in.

  3. Sweem says:

    I am always around, just not keen on every pick – got to try and pick the right spots. Currently following the Swedish teams in pre-season. The season begins in April. Will see you a lot more often then!

    – Sweem

  4. luke says:

    gg is 100%

  5. Kevoojero says:

    The only thing I prefer much from this guy, Sweem “He is working under strictly condition basing on few selected teams” This typical produces positive outcomes unlike other tipsters picking teams from ALL LEAGUES sometime with limited information based on rumors(EPL,Laliga, seria A, serie B, segunda, bundesliga 3 and so forth) DAMN! . I cashed out some money through his picks. I remember FK VARDAR one time , I paid some bills through OSTERSUND two times. Damn! I see green again …. Kudos ;)

  6. football expert says:

    I can not but agree with sweem. Arsenal defence is porous. Most likely both team to score couple with poor away record of Arsenal. Good luck with this pick because I will be playing on it.

  7. Sweem says:

    -Kevoojero

    Appreciate the input. Of course, once every season you find underestimated teams. You name Vardar from recent campaigns, against Malmo and Copenhagen. It would have been easy to think “Swedish league is better than Vardars, so Malmo should win” and buy the short odds of 1.50 because the public says so. Ostersund is the same in this case.. I think Arsenal win at Emirates, but this is an awful match to even travel to, and to play it is even worse. The pitch makes you feel like “when is it halftime? can we finish this game and go home?” while Ostersund will play for their lives. It makes me love the home underdog, even if all logic on paper tells me otherwise. Just some thoughts! Good luck mate

    @football expert
    – If Arsenal find at least 60 minutes of motivation to play, they should score. If not, I see Ostersunds scoring and possibly winning. Anyhow, BTTS for over 2.00 is too good in my eyes. Good luck!

    – Sweem

  8. aron50 says:

    Better is BTTS NO IMO.Ostersunds as Sweem stated lacks some important pieces in team and Arsenal will be happy with 0-0.These elimination matches in 2 games are not quite recommendable for BTTS because players pay attention lots more to defense.

  9. Ansu says:

    @aaron you play btts no and really dont care about your opinion becoz u r the one who always create negative doubts in the punters mind by commenting against the tipsters tip.. U troll

  10. svetlana says:

    there are just 2 consistent Tipsters here who tips selectively and not randomly unlike other tipsters on every league just for the prize one is SWEEM and the other is MESEE

  11. Ropmartins says:

    I think Arsenal will win, but Sween how good is Arsenal opponent???

  12. Sweem says:

    @Ropmartins
    Difficult to say, but good enough to remain undefeated at home in Europe. The list now reads: Galatasaray, PAOK, Fola Esch, Hertha Berlin, Athletic Bilbao and Zorya who were all defeated or kept draw. It is not an easy place. I think Ostersund are the most home-dependant team in Europe. They usually make it count.

    Arsenal at 1.55 is a big trap in my eyes, very risky to fall for the name. I could be wrong too, but Ostersund are good enough to give Arsenal sweat.

  13. Ropmartins says:

    @Sween
    Ok Thank you so much

  14. Fabio says:

    Wilshire, konchielny, Ramsey, Cech Wil not play

  15. Mk Junior Jr says:

    Sweems is back
    My $20 is on this tip sharp

  16. Ann says:

    Could it work with ov 2.5 goals?

  17. Lucian says:

    Arsenal have no match in weekend. This is very important.

  18. Dozzy says:

    I see very low numbers of goals. under2.5

  19. Stergios says:

    Arsenal will win. New signings and momentum is great.
    I don’t think Ostersunds will be competive as was on first round because of lack of games.
    Europe games are different from pre-season training.

    Order by propability
    Arsenal to win
    over 2.5
    BTTS
    1-2

  20. David says:

    I like home +1 (asian handicap) at around 2.20
    GL guys!

  21. Sungjae says:

    Good i like home+1

  22. Dude says:

    1-3 final, Ghoddos gonna score for Östersunds arond 75th minute.

  23. Dude says:

    Ohh well, really smart to let a horrible defensive player kick a penalty kick, he has scored ZERO goals in 25 games for ôstersunds.

  24. Goal says:

    Smelled on public bet all day still gave a shot live on high odds. BTTS will come next match!

  25. Kenblick says:

    Forget that old Sweem you knew then, I smelt a fish but stayed calm :)

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