Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder
Denver Nuggets - Oklahoma City Thunder
Sometimes odds or lines are funny ... and that's usually good, as we can exploit them for our own profit if we aknowledge the odds are made out of raw numbers analysis rather than out of matchup analysis.
Let's see what we've got here.
Well ... we've got two of the best defensive teams in NBA.
Let's point some numbers to support this statement:
Deffensive eficiency: OKC is the very best in NBA for this season while Denver is a top5 team.
Concerning the opponents' from the field percentage, OKC is ranked no3 while Denver is no6 in the league.
In shooting defense OKC is 8th and Denver is 9th.
All these while not being quite among the best but reather mediocre on the other side of the court ...
In offensive efficiency OKC ranks at no19 while Denver si 9th.
In shooting efficiency OKC is 19th as well, while Denver is 12th.
So they use to block their opponents better than they actually score.
No, let's see where this 217.5 line comes from ...
In their past 4 games OKC scored and allowed lots of points. They lost 114 to 118 to the Pelicans. They won 122 to 113 to the Jazz. They lost 112 to 114 at the Bulls and won 114 to 112 in Brooklyn.
OKC uses to play to the pace of the opponent, especially when the opponent is a lower quality team. And all those 4 opponents are losing teams at the moment (New Orleans is at 0.500 winning percentage actually, while the other 3 are under the 0.500).
Yet, against a defensive oriented Denver I expect Oklahoma to play different. They are 1-6 over/under on the road against teams with winning record (over 0.500) and 4-9 overall on the road, while Denver is 6-7 at home and 7-2 over/under at home against teams with winning record.
Denver missing Harris, Millsap and Barton will only help this bet, as they will lack in scoring resources while staying strong in defense where the system is more important than the individuals.
These teams are ranked no1 and no3 in the Western Conference and I expect a game like we usually see between contenders for the first 4 playoff spots. Their previous game, two and a half weeks ago, saw Denver winning in Oklahoma City 105 - 98.
Expect again 203 - 213 points in this game, under the projected total and ... let's go green!
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Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder prediction
|Under 216 points scored in the game||Pinnacle||2.08||9||109-98 WON (+9.72 units)|