Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks
Toronto Raptors - Milwaukee Bucks
When I saw the line for this one set at 231 I've spent some seconds staring at the display ...
Then I got it. The first match of the season between these two was a big over and the over is 4-0 in their past 4 meetings overall as well as in their past 4 in Toronto. Moreover, both teams are in the top4 scoring offenses in NBA, with Milwaukee ranking 1st and Toronto 4th.
Yet ... this is not an ordinary game. It's a game between two contenders for the Eastern Conference Finals and every such game is a potentially statement game. Even more after the Bucks winning by 15 the last one. In that first meeting, in Milwaukee, the Bucks took off for a fast start and they have scored a ton of points before the Raptors realized what was happening to them.
I believe the East's top team will take care for that situation not to be repeated and, having a fully packed crowd behind, they will ... and here we come to the focal point of this pick ... the Raptors will focus on controlling the pace and to limit the Bucks' transition offense. Once they slow them and make them play more of a half court basketball, they know they are versatile enough to be able to win that way.
Statistically speaking, it's worth mentioning that the under is 4-0 in Toronto's past 4 games and 3-1 in Milwaukee's past 4, as both teams seem to have been slowing down lately.
While the Bucks are playing this season at a average pace of 107.7 posessions per game, the Raptors record 105.1. Though, this month the Raptors are allowing just 99.8 points per 100 possessions, while the Bucks are giving up just 102.1. Slowing down, as stated.
Note also that both teams are in the bottom third of the league in extra scoring chances per game.
All in all I think the bookies are doing here the same thing they did two days ago when the projected the total at 241 for Milwaukee - Golden State, missing (intentionally or not) the statement side of the game, the day (Saunday game), the recent trends, etc.
The total in that Friday game was 200, while the Raptors had a 201 points game in Brooklyn.
I see something between 210 - 220 points tonight.
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Let's go green!
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Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks prediction
|Under 230 points scored in the game||Pinnacle||2.05||9||99-104 WON (+9.45 units)|