LA Dodgers vs Boston (By: Mulder)
Might be another loss, might be 10-0 for LA here, but that does not mean that these odds are right. ML is Wrong for a lot of reasons and with such high odds books always show a wrong team total to go with as well. Here is why these odds are worth the risk and why the line(s) are a total joke.
Red Sox are the most powerful team in the Majors. Have to say that Madson helped them bigtime last time out( loading the bases and walking Pearce, seriously>? ) but they find ways to score almost every time they are out there in the batters box.
Red Sox were hitting a .340 wOBA in the regular season and they were first in that regard as well with a monsterous 865 wRC.
This postseason they have been red hot as well with a 9-2 record. On the road they have been perfect with a 5-0 record. They exploded in that span as they scored 8 runs per game on the road and in every game 4 runs at least. You See why this lines are a joke already? Wait there is more.
Buehler is a good pitcher, but Kershaw is still their ACE and they got to him hard while he is a lefty. Indeed, Red Sox are hitting righties harder all season long. In the regular season just ranked 18th in advanced stats against Southpaws. Against RHP however ranked first with a monsterous .349 wOBA and an amazing 681 wRC (!).
Buehler had a 2.62 regular season ERA and a 9.90 K/9. But this postseason he is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA.
In the regular season his split:
vs righties: .294 SLG
vs lefties: .307 SLG
At home lefties SLG even a bigger .328 off him.
Bostos has enough lefty power with Benentendi, Devers and Red hot Bradley JR.
If we look to Buehlers stuff we see that he is FA guy and he uses the sinker, curve, Cutter and Slider as well.
Boston is hitting basically whole his arsenal. Red Sox are 3rd vs the four-seamer, 5th versus the sinker, 13th vs the curve, 4th versus the cutter and 2nd versus the slider.
Dodgers are favourites because of their starting matchup and because they are great against Sinkerballers. Porcello is a sinkerballer but he often showed up this season when the needs were high.
You see, Porcello is underrated because he is 17-7 this season AND he pitched much better than his 4.28 ERA with a 3.87 xFIP (!). On the road Porcello had even a 3.82 xFIP> 9.38 K/9 with a solid 2.54 BB/9 control to go with.
He owned the Yankees this season and i mention that since the Yankees are even a better sinkerball hitting team than the Dodgers are ( Yankees first vs the Sinker, Dodgers 8th ).
This postseason Porcello is 1-0 with a 4.22 ERA.
And last but not least the bullpens. LA had the edge obviously, but it is worthless if you cannot manage your bullpen properly and in this situation Alex Cora totally owned Roberts. Who in his right mind would bring Madson who struggled the day before while starters Maeda and co were ready to go? Alex Cora on the other side bringing his starters Eovaldi and Rodriquez to do the job. Add Barnes and Kimbrel and suddenly Boston has an advantage with the bullpen. This could be key in this matchup.
Rare double pick:
3.5 stakes ( 10/10) on Boston over 3.0
2 stakes (8/10 ) on Boston ML
Was expecting +115 max for Boston so plus money all the way with Boston as a road dog.
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LA Dodgers vs Boston prediction
|Boston ML||Pinnacle||2.41||8||3-2 LOST (-8 units)|