Milan vs Roma by Enzo

After two decent performances at home against Spal and Udinese, players of Milan disappointed last time out in Serie A, suffering 2:0 defeat against Sampdoria on the road on Sunday evening. They had more of the ball possession, especially in the second halftime but moved the ball poorly and barely did anything worth noticing in attack.

On the other side, hosts looked well via counter attacks and took the leading goal in 72nd minute via Zapata, while Alvarez sealed their victory against the flow of the match in first minute of additional time. Milan is now only at sixth position at the table, having just a point less than Champions League placed Lazio on fourth position, but already six less than leading duo from Napoli and Juventus. As for Europa League, they managed to win narrowly at home over Rijeka in a 3:2 game, looked better during the most of the clash and had 2:0 lead till last ten minutes, but then managed to complicate their lives, however Cutrone scored the winning goal in fourth minute of additional time.

Milan should continue in 3-4-2-1 formation with Kalinic as lone striker, plus Suso and Bonaventura most likely as offensive midfielders. Right back Andrea Conti (2/0) is injured, same as defensive Luca Antonelli (1/0) and midfielder Riccardo Montolivo (2/1). Midfielder Hakan Calhanoglu (6/0) is doubtful for this match, but with chances to play.

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Roma, on the other side, continued their good run in Serie A coming from third consecutive victory as the side won over Udinese at home with 3:1 result on Saturday afternoon. They had great first halftime and scored all three goals during it, two from El Shaarawy and one from Dzeko in a very open first halftime.

However, they lowered down the tempo in the second halftime and were looking equal to their opponents still having much more of the ball possession, but were satisfied with the result and didn't attack heavily, still missing the penalty kick towards the end of the game, while the guests reduced their deficit in 90th minute via Larsen. Roma is now at fifth position with 4-0-1 record and surely aiming to get back with points here since the race for Champions League for next season seems to be strong this time. As for CL, they got an important victory over Qarabag on the road last Wednesday 2:1, keeping their chances of reaching the knockout stage (goals from Manolas and Dzeko early in the game).

Guests should continue in their 4-3-3 formation with Florenzi and Shaarawy most likely on the wings, plus Dzeko as central striker. They continue to miss offensive players Diego Perotti (4/0), Gregorie Defrel (3/0) and Patrik Schick (1/0) so there's no doubt that Florenzi will start on the position of right winger. Left back Emerson and right back Rick Karsdorp are both continuing to be long term absentees without performing so far in the season.

  • Roma have won their last 9 away matches (Serie A).
  • AC Milan have seen over 2.5 goals in their last 4 home matches against Roma.

This game is very important for both sides already early in the season and as such, I can't see it being anything else but very open and attacking one from both teams. Milan is a home side and needs to be looking for a three pointer, but their defensive lineup is far away from a reliable one, while we can say something similar for Roma - there's no doubt that their offensive part is more quality side of the team.

Bet: Over 2.5 goals & both teams to score @ 1.90 with Bet365
Result: 0-2 (lost)
 * Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.
+39 -13


  1. aron50 says:

    Milan is average team as we saw with Rijeka,,,x2 is banker here but I believe in Roma win.
    Roma won 9 away matches!!!

  2. MarieFR says:

    I agree with Aron50

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Enzo's latest betting tips

Date    Match  League  Hits  Odds 
18.03  Sampdoria - Inter   Italy Serie A  3780  1.84 
17.03  Spal - Juventus 6  Italy Serie A  6395  2.14 
10.03  Palermo - Frosinone   Italy Serie B  3238  1.88 
08.03  Lazio - Dynamo Kiev 1  Europa League  8064  1.93 
07.03  Tottenham - Juventus 4  Champions League  8511  1.80 
04.03  Avellino - Bari   Italy Serie B  2647  2.23 
28.02  Lazio - AC Milan 6  Coppa Italia  5598  2.25