Jerv vs Hodd by 20Legend

The most surprising team from last season has slowly awaken after a slow start to the season this year. Jerv managed to play qualification for Tippeligaen last season after a brilliant form in the league. They got all the way to the last qualification game against Start, but was not good enough when it counted the most.

Even though no one could have predicted that performance, the loss led to several changes in the club ahead of this year. Both their coach and their top scorer left the club and things have been going a bit slower this season. Their new coach Arne Sandsto has a ton of experience from Tippeligaen and he has also tried to adjust the way his team is playing. Jerv had success with an extreme direct style last season with a lot off long passes behind the opponent’s defense, so their top scorer Ohi Omujianfo could use his pace to create chances for them. Sandsto has changed this and the result is now showing more and more for each game.

The players are now using more of the ball during their build-ups to each attack, which gives them a more unpredictable style than last season. It has taken some time to adjust to the new system, but the players have responded with an unbeaten row in the last five games (3-2-0). That has suddenly put Jerv up in 5th place at the table with 19 points in 12 games. They come from an easy win away against struggling Raufoss (0-1) last week. Jerv was without three of their best players, including two top scorers, but still managed to get an early goal. Jerv managed to isolate Raufoss’ key-player Rocky Lekaj during the game, which made Raufoss not able to respond in any way. Jerv only had to control the rest of the game by keeping possession. The top scorers Tony Brochman (11/4) and Dennis Antwi (10/3) are returning tonight in addition to defender Glenn Andersen (11/0).

Hodd ended up with a very strong 4th place last season, but it has been a whole different performance this season compared to that. 3-2-7 and 11:17 on goal difference makes it clear that this team will need to fight for avoiding relegation this season. Hodd currently has the 13th place which is one of the four positions in the relegation zone. It is not a long way out of it at the moment, but it could easily be so if their form does not improve quickly. It did not help the situation with another loss against KFUM Oslo (1-2) at home last week. KFUM Oslo is one of the newcomers this season, but it did not look that way.

The visitors controlled both halves and did exactly what they wanted. Instead of defending their early 0-1 lead after 14 minutes, KFUM Oslo aimed for the second goal. Hodd did not find a way to stop their aggressive approach and 0-2 was a fact in the 68th minute. Hodd reduced with a goal in stoppage time, but it was way too late. Hodd has been the worst team away from home this season (0-0-5) with no wins and 2:9 on goal difference. It is therefore not a good thing that their top scorer Eirik Ulland Andersen (12/4) is suspended tonight after receiving a red card against KFUM Oslo.

Jerv becomes natural favorites in this match considering their positive development of form combined with getting three key-players back. Hodd’s terrible away from and their missing top scorer makes the gap even bigger on paper between these two. However, both teams have one thing in common this season as they are always involved in low scoring games. Nine of Jerv’s twelve games have gone under 2.5 goals, while seven of Hodds’s twelve games have also gone under the same line. Hodd is probably forced to lay low here and take their chances on counter attacks. Jerv has scored very few goals this season despite their table position and it will not be any easier to break down Hodd’s defense. I therefore mean that under 2.5 goals is the best option for this match, although Jerv is also a good pick.

Bet: Under 2.5 goals @1.83 with Pinnacle
Result: 5-1 (lost)
 * Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.
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  1. Lucas says:

    1-1 in 8 minutes, that was unexpected

  2. nitram90 says:

    10min into game alrdy 2 goals :D lets pray

  3. hhh says:

    Bookies forever!

  4. Mariano says:

    Jerv win this game for sure, so this prediction is fail

  5. GlacialSpirit says:

    Legend you’re good and I always follow your tips but this is a huge fail :D No hard feeling though keep up the good work and good luck next time ( :

  6. Eclipse123 says:

    That penalty opened this game up. Shame

  7. Henry says:

    Nice analysis all the same. One thing I’ve learned to never do is bet under 2.5 in norway even if it looks likely, i just leave it. Got on asane to win though. Cheers

  8. Ergin8 says:

    Legend I feel like I must give you feedback here, I stayed away from this one as your over/unders are much more likely to flop than other picks. I did make a sweet $60 on Asane pick however. Keep up the good work bud, I will follow.

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