Fiorentina vs Lazio by Enzo

Fiorentina comes to their own stadium after two generally negative results, since they firstly lost to Palermo 2:0, but also took just a point away to Sassuolo last weekend in a 2:2 draw. Must be said, it was overall quite an open game and could have ended pretty differently on some other day.

Viola was better in the first halfitme and deservedly took the lead in 37th minute via Chiesa, while they missed some more chances, including a penalty missed by Kalinic. However, home team responded much better in the second halftime and leveled up via penalty kick taken by Politano, while the visitors stood playing with a man less since that 73rd minute. Sassuolo even increased the pressure and completely reverted the scoreline via Iemmello, but the players of Viola managed to snatch that point with a late equalizer in first minute of additional time via Bernardeschi. The team is now at eight position, having three points more than sixth (and Europa League placed) Milan.

Davide Astori is back after serving a one match ban. Central midfielder Milan Badelj (32/2) probably won't take place here with an injury, while central defender Gonzalo Rodriguez (24/1) serves a one game ban due red card in previous round.

Lazio, on the other side, comes from a very offensively impressive victory last weekend, as the team won over Sampdoria 7:3 last Sunday evening. It was overall very open game and if anything, purely justified by the final result - convincing victory of a home team, but also with the visitors being very dangerous in attack.

Scoreline was opened already in second minute via Keita, while the visitors stood playing with a man less already in eighteent minute when Skriniar was showed a red card. Immobile doubled up their lead from penalty kick, while Linetty reduced temporarily in 32nd minute. However, Lazio managed to score three more in last ten minutes of the first halftime, via Hoedt, Anderson and de Vrij, while Lulic and Immobile again increased their lead to 7:1 in the middle of second half, but with the visitors recuding towards the end via Quagliarella twice. Lazio now seems pretty safe at fourth position, not being able to slip down to the positions which are leading to Europa League qualifiers anymore.

Lazio can't count at goalkeeper Federico Marchetti (17/0) who continues to be long term absentee due injury. Participation of offensive midfielder Sergej Milinkovic-Savic probably won't be under question as he should recover from muscular injury. Their coach could rotate ahead of the Cup final in next days.

  • There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 9 of Fiorentina's last 11 home games (Serie A).
  • Fiorentina have seen over 2.5 goals in their last 4 matches against Lazio.

It's obvious that Fiorentina have been tanking lately with their performances, possibly to avoid Europa League qualifiers, while Lazio surely have much bigger game ahead of themselves. Even though recent form says this should be quite an open game with both teams scoring easily - at the same time, having Viola's competitive motive under question a bit and with Lazio playing in the Cup finals, but also being generally safe on their position - this can easily turn out to be a nightmare for most of the punters who are chasing goals, while we have more than valuable odds with underish side considering it's still Italian game.

Bet: Under 3.25 goals @ 2.05 with Pinnacle
Result: 3-2 (lost)
 * Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.
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  1. Snipern says:

    Are you suggesting that Fiorentina is deliberately trying to avoid Europa League qualification?

    If Lazio wants a decent build-up to the finals they will more than likely field their strongest team. And is I mentioned in my preview; Immobile can still be crowned top scorer in Serie A.
    Calling under 3,5 in a match involving a team like Lazio these days is a sure loss imo.

  2. Enzo says:

    Didn’t say deliberately, but they wouldn’t be nor the first nor the last club to not be fully fired up for EL qualifiers. That’s like starting the season close to a month earlier for the players. Similar might be said for Inter and Milan too. I’m not convinced with their determination in last rounds – same goes for Inter & Milan.

    Build up? After 40+ official matches during the season we are speaking about building something up 4-5 days before more important game? Plus the side is in fine form now.

    Immobile who is five goals behind Dzeko? And with four more players having scored more than him (one player three goals more, three players two goals more)? You need to be bigger optimist than himself.

    With everything said, this game can still end up as 5-5 FT, but the arguments are staying, imo.

  3. Snipern says:

    As Lazio have shown time after time, goals will not be an issue for them.
    First of Fiorentina has never had a realistic target before a season to challenge the scudetto – which inter and milan have. So reaching a European cup is a goal in itself; if not only for the money that comes with it, and being slightly more attractive for new players to sign.

    Immobile being 5 goals short of Dzeko with three matches to go is as close as he might be in a long time! Surely the fact that he is so close will speak in favor of him netting one or two.
    Along with Lazio over 1,5 goals, I have played Keita, Immobile and Felipe Anderson to score, as well as penalty given.

  4. Enzo says:

    The fact that some club wasn’t expected to challenge for the title, doesn’t mean that their players will be eager to start the season a month earlier.

    But now I see you reasoning is “provisional” and subjective, since you still say Immobile is “so close”… anyway, best of luck of with your bets, I would personally never touch a bet with such a low odds for bets like over 2.5 or both to score.

  5. Snipern says:

    Eager? No. But as you probably know these are professionals under contract, led by a manager whos directives come from a board and owner. So Babacar saying “nah guys, i want my holiday to last longer; f**k that Europa League, lets start losing now”?
    I don’t know who’s the subjective one putting ulterior motives into the Fiorentina players…
    And like you, I would never touch over 2.5 either, nor btts- hence why I listed better alternatives.
    Good luck to you too!

  6. Enzo says:

    Again, I’m telling, it wouldn’t be nor the first nor the last time for a club or players to do so – and it is how the race between Milan, Inter and Fiorentina looks like in last rounds. If your experience is different and doens’t include even one situation like this, then fine. Also, you’re making me defend that assumption like I said it’s a sure thing, when I said possibly from the first time.

    You don’t like these odds, but you like their linear projection for some probably more riskier things, interesting, good luck. But this is even deeper mathematical thing.

    Betting on goals in this game somehow does look like jumping on the bandwagoon and I’ll never agree with such odds (probability) given by the books.

  7. Snipern says:

    I’m not sure what you mean by “deeper mathematical thing”, and your track record in Serie A lately doesn’t really show that you are able to foresee things other cant. Goals in this match is obvious.

  8. Enzo says:

    It is obvious, that’s why I said jumping on the bandwagoon, if something is obvious, that doesn’t always mean it has value.

    It’s kinda pointless to discuss profit of any editor from a perspective of average user or other tipster, since editors are in way different position than tipsters. With few things that are actually more important than profit, it’s not easy to produce a steady one at all. That’s why we’ve said many times: It’s free info, taking it as news/preview, picks is there… just a pick. Of course it’s easier if you write just couple of hours before the game and if you have freedom to choose whatever match you want, etc, etc.

  9. kimbo says:

    0-0 Ht now 3-2 unlucky mate really

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