Ostersunds vs Fola by Sweem

If you have ever heard the expression of something being located in 'the middle of nowhere' this is an accurate fixture to describe it. You may wonder how the Galatasaray players felt when they arrived up north, to the small artificial stadium. The rest is now history. The Turkish side were knocked out by Ostersund, and here is a fun fact for you: There are 50,000 people in the entire town Ostersund - that is less than what Galatasaray could fit in their whole Stadium (52,000 capacity) and still they could not discard them.

The town is on total football fever at the moment after the success - and the interest has never been bigger in Ostersund, who are mainly known for their skiing resort. Ostersund are in Europa League qualifiers thanks to winning the Swedish Cup. In other words, it is not because of their position in the standing. Sooner or later, by the looks of it - Ostersund will be a serious challenger to win Allsvenskan.

The club is unique in their concept of how an organization should be run. They have played together for a long time and done the journey together from the lower divisions of Sweden. Coach Graham Potter is from England, and he is more than just their coach - he is a leader who sees more than the football player, which is part of why he has managed to get the best out of former "trouble maker" footballers and players with foreign background but grown up in Sweden. They have a very delicate scouting system, where they often find golden picks from lower leagues in Sweden and England - basically, they look where nowhere else is looking.

More impressively, they play very accurate possession based football which they have practiced for several seasons, which is of very high quality. This is regardless if the opponent is Galatasaray or someone else. It is very difficult to travel to Ostersund, it is located very high up north in Sweden and the stadium turf is artificial - something that Fola are not used to play on. For many teams that visit Ostersund, it is a bit of a cultural shock because of the location and also surprised of the type of football that is played.

Ostersund have many quality players even if they are unknown, it is probably a matter of time before they leave for bigger clubs in Europe. Striker Saman Ghoddos is the main man with his pace and finishing ability. Ken Sema is a powerful winger with an ability to power through a defense by himself, and the English striker Jamie Hopcutt continues his efficiency. On the midfield you see players who are ball winners, in Fouad Bachirou and Brwa Nouri - both controlled the midfield against Galatasaray exceptionally well.

Ostersunds are 10-3-0 at home in their last couple of competitive fixtures, and their last loss at home came in November 2016, in the last round of Allsvenskan against Gefle, and in fact have only lost twice in the last 12 months on this turf.

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Fola Esch finished third in Luxembourg last season, which is why they are now qualifying. Their main threat is striker Samir Hadji who have good size with his 190 centimeter and will be useful for crosses in particular. Their captain at the back is Julian Klein, who has been with the club for 7 seasons and arrived from the French third division. The team is quite experienced at the back, with an average age of 28 years on the defence, with Peter Chrappan leading the way with his 32 years.

There are some locals in the side as well, in midfielder Michel Bechtold and winger Ken Corral. In other words, many foreign players from smaller clubs in Germany and France, that are now playing in Luxembourg. That is the kind of composition the team is made of. Fola did struggle in Baku after suffering a 1-0 loss, but the revenge came at home with a solid 4-1 victory, despite Baku seeing more of the chances and ball - Fola were very efficient.

Coach Jeff Strasser has been with Fola Esch for a very long time, since 2010. He has never won an away game in Europe with his team, as he is 0-2-3 in five away matches in Europe, with goal difference of 9 conceded goals and 2 scored. Obviously, Fola Esch are approaching their away games with the mindset of always being underdogs and do not really get much room to create offensive pressure as visitors.

There are two main factors that will settle this game. The first comes down to Ostersunds passing game, which is very fluid and creative on their artificial turf - of high European quality. The second is the fact that Ostersund have the mindset of a big club and they act accordingly. Galatasaray came to Sweden to visit a club they had never heard of and were taken by surprise over not being able to loan the ball for long moments. Ostersund kept possession and showed technical brilliance to show no respect despite it being a European "giant" in comparison.

Fola Esch will have lesser time to breathe with the ball than Galatasaray had, and will be put under pressure throughout most of the game. I expect a sharp Ostersund again, to continue with their strong home performances and around the 65% possession mark. They are extremely motivated to reach Europa League. A team from Luxembourg should not have much to claim from an away game of this kind, despite their impressive displays versus Baku. On a normal day, Ostersund should put three past Fola and that is why I opt for the -1.5 handicap option for the hosts.

Bet: Ostersunds -1.5 Asian handicap @ 1.86 with BetVictor
Result: 1-0 (lost)
+95 -10

37 Comments

  1. moustafha says:

    Hey sweem:) i am following valuable comment. Can you give me celtic and bordoux-videotan and marsilya-odstande match?

  2. nassboi says:

    On it

  3. Jeju united says:

    @moustafha you are giving Mr sweem a hard time!

  4. bway says:

    Pls what’s the mean of-1.5asian h

  5. Josh says:

    betsafe 2.2 koef sweems

  6. Robert Munter says:

    I was just watching game Djurgården-Östersunds and must say that Östersunds was awful.

  7. aron50 says:

    I guess Fola is in much better shape right now than Galatasaray…I am afraid the green line will finish tomorrow Sweem..

  8. Sweem says:

    @Robert – the match vs Djurgarden, was 3 days after the match in Istanbul, so Östersund were rotating a lot and played without key players. They treat Europa League with priority, not Allsvenskan.

    @Aron50
    We will see, I dont see Fola being able to stand a chance in Östersund. They won’t be touching the ball a lot, and are significantly weaker than Galatasaray.

    Good luck to all

    -Sweem

  9. Tony says:

    I go for green, so here we go again!….Sweem all the way!!

  10. CLEBER says:

    I agree with @Tony… This post was brillantly written, so how can we avoid taking this one… I´ll go for grEEN… I´ll go for @swEEM

    PS. Miss THE BOSS here… HASSY… You´ll never be forgotten, man :-)

  11. anna siow youn says:

    3-0 4-0 maybe 5-0

  12. kunle george says:

    I go wt Sweem.

  13. swayboy says:

    Hi Boss, nice write up, am with Ɣ☺ΰ boss…green 4 life!!!

  14. Tee4Hero says:

    nice write up..sween

  15. Joey Taylor says:

    Hi man
    Quote you:
    “If you have ever heard the expression of something being located in ‘the middle of nowhere’ this is an accurate fixture to describe it. You may wonder how the Galatasaray players felt when they arrived up north, to the small artificial stadium. The rest is now history. The Turkish side were knocked out by Ostersund, and here is a fun fact for you: There are 50,000 people in the entire town Ostersund – that is less than what Galatasaray could fit in their whole Stadium (52,000 capacity) and still they could not discard them.”

    In my opinion it is waste, lack of quality in a pick to write this, a site with focus on journalism should also point that out. It seems as if the reason behind this is, to use as much space as possible. I don’t even think it being fun, only waste. You are a great tipster but overall too many are writing things in east, going into west ending in the south with a trip to the moon in between somewhere…

  16. David Miles says:

    prolific write up.Excellent analysis.

  17. ArmdnDangrous says:

    Whats up with Ghoddos and Sema being doubtful fo tonights clash?

  18. Sweem says:

    @Joey
    – You decide what you chose to read and take part of. I am just trying to refrain from doing typical “team x is better than team y, so hosts will win”. That is not betting, it’s how fishes are making picks. Editors are no fishes.

    The point of previews is to make it (in my opinion) entertaining, and not only go to numbers and statistics. Anyone can see statistics (go to flashscore). I just try to add something more flourishing.

    Waste or not – no one force you to read it :) If you want to look for the ONLY relevant thing -> open a preview -> scroll down to see the final pick.

    – Sweem

  19. sureseye says:

    @Joey – the quote is excellent and relevant. It points out two things at least:

    1. Ostersunds may be small in numbers but they know how to unite to form a force;
    2. Ostersunds artifical turf is a tough place to play on and even a ‘mighty’Gala struggled there.

  20. Mk junior jr says:

    I made my mind long time and I wouldn’t go back I said to myself after sweem last preview that the next preview count me inn, I go for green
    Bookers want to discourage us with the odds now it stands @2+

  21. aziz says:

    3:0

  22. Robert says:

    Sweden best club Malmo FF not win either of 2 games against Macedonian club Vardar and Ostersunds won/draw against Turkish giant Galatasaray?so Malmo is so weak and Ostersunds superior?Galatasaray had just started their pre-season so none can exactly say how rusty they really are right now.Anyway only what is sure is that this come to be totally different style of game what was Ostersunds-Gala and I believe that its more difficult to Ostersunds.

  23. Alen says:

    Hi Sweem. What is your prediction about Dinamo Zagreb – Odd Grenland?

  24. Sweem says:

    @Robert
    The only fear is that Ostersund understimate Fola and think it will be easy. However, yes, Ostersund are together with Malmo the best teams suited for success in Europe and Sweden.

    Ostersund statistics in Sweden in different categories:

    Possession: (2nd) – second most possession in the league
    Pass success: (1st) – best accuracy on passing
    Shots allowed: (3rd) – third best defense in not letting opponents shoot
    Successful dribbles: (1st) – best individual skill success rate per game

    Just some key notes to consider. Ostersund have lost 2 times in 12 months at home. If Fola put an end to that, it would be a big big big surprise

  25. Docc says:

    Hi Sweem, I’m impressed by the work you put in every analysis, it takes a lot of time. The results are visible, I am only worried about this winning series …: D

  26. Robert Munter says:

    8 same players who played last week against Galatasaray 1-1 and lost against Djurgården 3-0…this really that Galatasaray what we know??or are they rusty?Overall Sweden Allsvenskan is nothing special when we compared in Europa and Ostersunds are very very unexperience in these tournaments.I was in Tele2 arena to watch DIF-Östersunds and Östersunds had no weapons to get any dangerous in last third and very very often they pass backward all the way in their goalie..very disappointed performance..my bet Fola+1.5

  27. Dude says:

    Time for a Östersunds goal, but my guess is 0-0 at halftime and 2-0 fulltime.

  28. Dude says:

    Thats 1

  29. Sweem says:

    Unfortunately, all good things comes to an end. It has been a good run and a pity Ostersund could not finish their chances today, and what could have been 4-0 was instead 1-0. It is difficult to break through a 11 man defense

    Thanks all for the good words through the unbeaten journey. Let’s start a new one when time comes

    – Sweem

    • John Doe says:

      i think you were looking at another match . ostersunds have to be happy with the win . if it wasnt for that mistake they would have never scored . they are awful team. luxembourg side looked better for me . if they had scored first then they would have been qualified for sure . if ostersunds is a top team in sweden then swedish football is amateur level.

  30. George says:

    never mind sweem !! the bet was correct, ostersund should win easy! we are for the next one, keep up

  31. nassboi says:

    Dear sweem we love you for the good job. Keep it up we love you

  32. Andy Ng says:

    That is called “gamble”, nobody can guarantee 100% win. That is why he advised don’t bet too much. Next time, we should be carefully with -1.5. Thank you Sweem and we will win next time.

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