Dinamo Batumi vs Jagiellonia by Sweem

Dinamo Batumi will have to travel from their fancy coast city to Kutaisi - a city located more centrally into the country of Georgia, to play on Ramaz Shengelia Stadium. It is a 150 kilometer journey, and due to many poor stadiums in Georgia, teams have to play on the bigger venues like this or in Tbilisi.

Dinamo Batumi was a club on the rise in recent years, which even led them to their first European victory last season, when they defeated Omonia Nicosia with 1-0, but lost the away leg with 2-0. It was under coach Shota Cheishvili where their success began. The now 68-year old coach is not with the club anymore, and instead Ukrainian Konstantyn Frolov is in charge. Batumi has undergone a significant change since last season - many players left the team, and new ones were brought in, while some younger players also joined, however they have struggled to maintain the quality in the team. They are currently struggling domestically, having 1 victory in the last 9 matches, and almost rank bottom of the table (8th of 10 teams).

Squad wise, Batumi have one dangerou main man, called Yaroslav Kvasov, who joined from Zorya in Ukraine. The 25-year old striker has scored 6 goals in 18 appearances in the Georgian league. The defensive line consist of main 37 year old veteran center back, Davit Kvirkvelia with experience from Anzhi and Rubin Kazan back in his professional career. The strongest position of the team is still the midfield, with captain Temuri Shonia being the glue, along with younger technical players like Mikheil Gorelishvili and Vako Tevdoradze who can create one-on-one situations and benefit from their skill. Other than the mentioned players, the rest are local players who are going through a difficult season, and Batumi are by far the biggest disappointment in Georgian football in 2017.

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The polish side, Jagiellonia finished second in the Polish league, only two points after Legia. In other words, it is an in-form team who are arriving to Kutaisi to take on a struggling bottom team from Georgia. In fact, Batumi have not scored domestically for four straight matches.

Jagiellonia will however miss striker Karol Swiderski (26/2) and winger Przemyslaw Frankowski (35/8) due to fatigue from playing in the U21 championship. Striker Lukas Sekulski is back from loan and is included for the Europa League qualifiers to add some extra attacking options in the squad.

It is important to note that Jagiellonia had a fantastic season, but they had a good coach in Michal Probierz, who now left the club for Cracovia Krakow. Now, Ireneusz Mamrot is the newly appointed coach for Jagiellonia, who came from a smaller club. It remains to see what type of impact he will make, and it is tough to judge after only two friendly matches. So far however, the Polish side have stayed in shape and possess a solid attacking force led by Irish striker Cillian Sheridan, who alone is worth more than the starting lineup of Dinamo Batumi (to put things in perspective) if we only look at market value.

The only factor of benefit for Batumi is that the Georgian league is already underway, while for Jagiellonia - they have just finished the Polish league, but remained active thanks to friendly matches. Jagiellonia just finished their season but have a much more professional club, squad and spiced up with foreigners. Dinamo Batumi are more local, and will struggle to keep up with Jagiellonia over two legs. This is a neutral venue, and there will not be more than a thousand spectators (Batumi's own fanbase is around 400) and considering this match is played far away, there is no home advantage. My assumption is that quality prevails, which is why I back Jagiellonia to a straight win.

Bet: Jagiellonia Wins @ 1.62 with BetVictor
Result: 0-1 (won)
+48 -6

5 Comments

  1. ssj says:

    I would advise against this bet. Jagiellonia lost their coach Michał Probierz after last season, the man that was an architect of all their successes. He has been replaced by a unknown coach with no achievements (Ireneusz Mamrot) that has worked at most at second division. Furthermore they’ve lost their most valuable player, Vassiljev, a main playmaker and top scorer simultaneously. Sekulski can give no extra attacking option comparing to Vassiljev, he is even considered to be a disappointing transfer in Białystok.
    To be honest, more valuable is to play 1X. Jagiellonia always struggle playing Europa League away matches – 0:1 vs Omonia (15/16 season) or 0:2 vs Irtysh Pavlodar (11/12 season)

  2. Sweem says:

    I see your point but I see no value in looking at past results from 2011 or 2015, to use it as some sort of guide. Teams change. The fact is that this Jagiellonia squad finished second, while Batumi is currently one of the worst sides in Georgia. The gap should be huge. Indicator: one player in Jagiellonia is worth more than Batumi. I’d say Batumi are barely professionals at this stage. Jagiellonia should be ashamed if they don’t win against this version of Batumi – the worst prepared Georgian team for European games at the moment

    Good luck with your bet though

    – Sweem

  3. bummbummbamm says:

    Sweem – problem is that in terms of squad Jagiellonia is not that strong as u think they r, fact is that they have decent squad and by that work made by Probierz was more then impressive – lets say they were Polish Atalanta – what is worse they will basicly play without 3 main players. U did very good research but as a Polish fan who knows mental aspect of our teams im telling u they r not going to Batumi for a win, they will go for a counter atack and without 3 main players they can struggle hard. They were strong in mental aspect, with good team play and good fitness – all of this was their main strenght becouse of Probierz and right now it seems without their “general” its risky to its going to be the same team.

  4. Sweem says:

    @bummbummbamm

    – Appreciate the discussion aspect from you. One can argue that a coach change is a risky thing (you never really know until a few matches, how it will look like). The prediction is more based on Batumi’s poor team. Being a Swede myself, I would say that Batumi would barely beat the best team in our second division at the moment. Jagiellonia will likely win at home with 3+ goals, but considering: Trust the attack of Jagiellonia (even though weakened) or trust the team of Batumi (especially defense). I go with the Polish all day. Despite their weaknesses, they are better on all positions on the field, despite loss of Vassiljev, coach and Frankowski.

    Odds were 1.95, but dropped to 1.55 / 1.60. The reason -> People are still thinking that Batumi is a top side in Georgia who are in Europe because of being a “solid top team in Georgia”. They are far from it today (about to be relegated). The team has gone through a full switch. Plus, I don’t take any home factor into consideration. This is the same as playing on a training camp, but with more at stake.

  5. sureseye says:

    Jagiellona lost a penalty around 10min ago and are completely dominating. Whatever happens this is a solid bet. I have my money on them and I hope they can win. Thanks Sweem

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