Kukesi vs Qarabag

Kukesi made it dramatic against Valletta from Malta, when a 84 minute strike by Irakli Dzaria led to an equalizing 1-1 goal. Due to the goal, Kukesi qualified on away goals. Surely, it was more dramatic than necessary but the Albanians did not capitilize on their home advantage against the Maltese side, after leaving it goalless at home. It was not convincing overall, and the Maltese side could absolutely have qualified with some margins. Instead, the Albanians progressed after last minute heroics.

Squad wise, they have experienced a big turnover with 13 players arriving, and 8 players leaving. The most significant loss is when top scorer Sindrit Guri (34/20) left the club for Oostende. On the more interesting side, Brazilian right back William Cordeiro joined from Oeste. Other than that, Kukesi has expanded their squad and added some depth. It is still an unexperienced team in European competitions who are looking to fill the void from their goal scoring striker from last season.

Prior to facing Qarabag, Kukesi are yet to win a match. Their last results include 0-4 loss against Maribor, 0-0 versus Valletta, and once again a 1-1 draw against the same opponents. Having scored one goal in the last 3 matches, they will have to step up if proceeding should be possible.

Qarabag is a more experienced team in these conditions, with over 90 competitive matches in European level, including a recent group stage participation of Champions League as early as 2017. They have added to the squad, with midfielder Simeon Slavchev joining from Sporting Lisbon and winger Abdellah Zoubir joining from Lens on a €1 million transfer. Moreover, Croatian attacker Filip Ozobic joined from rivals, Gabala.

It is a squad with international experience in all areas of the field, and a coach who has served them long term, naley Gurban Gurbanov who is seen as the most successful coach from Azerbaijan. He is very possession based, influenced by the famous tiki-taka style. Their European journey started with a victory in Slovenia, when Olimpija Ljubljana was defeated 0-1 away, and a goalless draw at home. Qarabag showed patience and played a very clever away game. To be drawn against Kukesi should be seen very positive, which must be seen as an easier draw than Olimpija.

Attacking midfielder Dani Quintana is likely to miss the match.

Qarabag is not only more experienced on every position, but also more clever and skillfull. They beat the Slovenian champions, and should easily pass Kukesi the same way, perhaps with more dominance. They will look for an away goal or two, and eventually close the game on home soil. The value is strongly on the visitors.

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Kukesi vs Qarabag prediction

Qarabag Wins @ 1.99 with Pinnacle

Result: 0-0 (lost)
 * Odds as of post published time and are subject to change.
+51 -13


  1. Nikolay says:

    My respect to you Sweem but I think you did not choose the right match.Qarabag were very lucky to go through as they score 1 goal at the end of first match against really weak team.Of course anything can happer but my opinion better to choose Ludogorets 1 and Bate Borisov 1 instead this one.

  2. Sweem says:

    Appreciate your feedback. Qarabag is one of the teams I have seen live, and also follow the football in Caucasia in general. Since I also lived in Malta, I have also seen Valletta many times (Kukesis opponents previously) and in all honesty, they were better than Kukesi, which says a lot in my opinion. If Qarabag were lucky vs Ljubljana, then Kukesi were absolutely the same. The Albanian team is relatively new in these occasions (barely any qualifying experience) and huge player turnover. I would personally not price this more than 1.60, so 1.99 is pretty fantastic after having seen the matches.

    Anything can happen (random penalty, red card, key injury, travel problems etc) so in the end the analysis can become useless. I find no single reason to back Kukesi or draw here.. maybe one: Underestimation or bad pitch conditions. Other than that, Qarabag all the way

    Good luck

  3. Scapolo says:

    Hey friends, what are you thinkig of about ludogarts razgaar -videotan and atalanta-sarejova, genk-fola esch, sevilla ujpest match? I think all of home win. Which ist risk match?? I wait your comment. Thx you

  4. Nikolay says:

    Thank you for your fasr answer Sweem.I just say that according to me there are much more better choices than this unpredicteble match.Even if we take Qarabag as favourites I do not think they will beat in albania.To be 1,6 for them do you thing somobody will bet on them?Of course they can win but chances in first match are 50/50.Please comment Ludogorets 1, Bate1 and Celtic1 combined.

  5. Scapolo says:

    Sevilla or atalanta which one is best if i prefer choosing just one team

  6. figo says:

    qarabag to win

  7. SUV says:

    I saw the albanians at home against the maltese side … my goodness , such a weak home team , the poor visitors could easely score … qarabagh is not real madrid , but against kukesi they surely will win!!!!

  8. Journey77 says:

    I think Seville is the better choice, they are very good at the Europa League

  9. Scapolo says:

    Thank you for answering journey77.What are you thinking of about genk-fola esch and ludogarts razgard-videotan matches?

  10. tosyno051 says:

    guys we have so much games tomorrow. isnt it possible for us to combine games to get big odds nd stake low on it? .i believe we can!

  11. Dude says:

    Low scoring game, under 2.

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