Atletico Madrid vs Dortmund
Atletico Madrid will host Borussia Dortmund in the 4th round match of Champions League at Wanda Metropolitano.
These two clubs will continue to the next phase of CL, there is no doubt about that after taking max points against Brugge and Monaco in the start. In the 3rd round they had to face each other in Dortmund and the hosts humiliated Atletico with 4:0, especially by counter-attacks with a few goals in the end of the game. Guerreiro was the man of the match without a doubt with his two goals and brilliant display. So, no need to say Atletico will want to take a revenge and also beat his opponent on home soil.
Both teams perform very well in their leagues. Dortmund are too good in attack during the season and that led them to the first place in the German Bundesliga. On the other side Atletico are in the 4th place, but only 4 points behind the leaders Barcelona and a point from the 2nd in the table, so the distance between the top teams there is obviously too short.
Atletico Madrid have some problems with injured players, who can still be in the starting line-up, it depends if they will be fit enough to play tomorrow. They are Diego Costa, Diego Godin and Koke. Of course, that's a team with good replacements, but I expect at least Godin to start and maybe Costa(as a substitution). On the other side Dortmund will miss for sure Gotze, whiel Schmelzer and Piszczek are both doubtful with big chance not to play.
So, what makes me to choose the home win here? First of all, Borussia's offensive power can be stopped, especially by such a strong defense Atletico Madrid have got. Hoffenheim also proved it in the end of September. I remember this game and how in the first 65 minutes Hoffenheim totally outplayed Borussia leading them only with 1:0. The visitors didn't have a single shot on target and maybe 1-2 off target for more than an hour. Against Brugge in the start of CL groups they also didn't show much in attack beating in the end via goal by Pulisic.
Borussia are really good at home soil, but as visitors they are vincible for sure. Lucian Favre made very strong start with this team, but we all know from the seasons before, Borussia have two different faces at home and away from home in CL and EL.
The next reason which made me to pick Atletico and maybe the most important of all, is because Dortmund will meet Bayern Munich on Saturday night in the Bundesliga and this very, very big and tough match is looking like their priority when almost theoretically they booked their place in the 1/8 finals of CL. Maybe Favre will rotate a little bit the starting line-up or just the players will not play too offensively, spending a lot of energy. They will need it for sure after four days in Dortmund.
On the other side Atletico have a weekend match against the depleted team of Bilbao which is more than comfortable opponent for them in the recent seasons, so I am sure they will give their best in this game for the final win. With or without Costa, Atletico still have brilliant midfield and Griezmann in attack, who can produce a lot of goal chances.
Minimal win for the hosts from me- 2:1 or 1:0.
Atletico Madrid vs Dortmund prediction
|1||Bet365||1.95||8||2-0 WON (+7.6 units)|