PSG vs Crvena zvezda (By: FairPlayBet)
Champions League, Day 2
PSG in Paris will face Serbian champion, Crvena zvezda. Many reasons to believe in convincing home win here. My tip is PSG -2.5.
Firstly, much higher quality of the home team obviously is already enough good reason to believe in big PSG victory.
Secondly, PSG has lost the opening game on Day 1 away at Liverpool, 3:2 so now clearly they will give their best to win the first points. Also note that counting end of the last season, PSG is now in series of four straight losses in the Champions League. Namely they have lost season ago final round of the group stage from Bayern Munich, then in the eight finals they have suffered both defeats in meeting with Real Madrid and this mentioned loss away at Liverpool at the start of this new season was the 4th straight failure. No doubt they will be looking to go back on the right track now, and no doubt they will be highly motivated although opponent is a team from much lower level. After all, we know PSG has achieved everything they could in France and they were doing it year after year. But, this team is made for success on the European level, they are aiming to finally win also Champions League.
The third important fact is about absent and/or not fully ready players. There are many such in both teams. But again, obviously it is much bigger handicap when Crvena zvezda has certain absence than it is problem for such deep squad as PSG is.
The PSG goalkeeper, the veteran, Gianluigi Buffon is suspended and wont play till 4th round. Furthermore PSG has several injured players. Those are: Colin Dagba, Dani Alves, Layvin Kurzawa (all defenders) as well midfielder Lassana Diarra. Thomas Meunier (defender) and Julian Draxler (midfielder) are questionable. There are also few more guys but not really important.
In any case, the biggest problem for PSG head coach Thomas Tuchel is on the defensive position of the Right-back cause three players of that position are out. Most likely we will see some of the teenagers to start there but some guys who are called from the youth squad for that position are also questionable. So, if Meunier who scored goal in Liverpool turned out not to be ready, maybe we will see some interim solution for that position, like 2nd captain Marquinhos for example. In any case, I really don't see many problems for home team cause as mentioned this is very deep squad and obviously they can take the job done here.
Crvena zvezda is in much bigger problems. Richmond Boakye, the first striker option is injured and didn't travel at all to Paris. It's big question who will replace him. The most likely (this is my opinion) the visiting team will play without real striker, in formation with so called fake No.9 (either Ben either Ebecilio).
PSG so far in the season has showed that they don't care too much about defending. I mean in even 5 out of 8 rounds in the French Ligue 1 they have conceded at least one. But when you score 3.5 goals per game, of course you will be with 100% record like PSG is right now. Thus even when they concedes twice like it was against Nimes, they still win convincing at the end.
Such powerful attack should be crucial also today cause CZ is in big problems in defense. Namely, the captain and IMO one of the most important players, Vujadin Savic was out of the team in last ten days or so. Fact that he had to miss the internal derby against Partizan was the best indicator it wasn't some minor injury. He traveled with the team to Paris and IMO probably will start but obviously he is not 100% fit. Furthermore, Milan Rodic who is member of the Serbian national team and who was on the World Cup in Russia this summer, also is not at his best. He could start too, but again, I doubt he can play his best.
And for the end, the goalkeeper Milan Borjan. No, he is not injured but honestly, how he has played lately, it would be better if he is injured. It's not joke, I mean really, he is making such rookie mistakes lately, and it was game after game. Against Partizan thanks to his mistake Partizan could easily be up 1:0 already in 28th second of the match. Then in Krusevac he has made such rookie mistake again and was lucky not to receive red card. Then do not forget what he was doing in final qualifying round in Salzburg where had few nice saves but also could easily to cost the team with some unreasonable moves. In any case, when Borjan has arrived to the club, he was quite good but lately he is not looking good at all.
I think we can trust PSG to cover this handicap. As mentioned, their attack will do their part of the job. It's only question whether Crvena zvezda can score or not. I have feeling they will although have problem in attack. But odds 2.30 for such option IMO is not good value if we know the home win is priced only 1.05. I mean, if the difference between these two sides is so huge, you would expect much better odds for BTTS than 2.30.
In any case, even if the guests scores, I think PSG will cover. My expectation is 3:0, 4:0 or 4:1.
PSG vs Crvena zvezda prediction
|PSG -2.5||Pinnacle||1.67||10||6-1 WON (+6.7 units)|